EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - Jan

[dan_s]

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending January 3, 2025

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day during the week ending January 3, 2025, which was 44 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 93.3% of their operable capacity last week.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 8.9 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.2 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 497 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.6 million barrels per day, 1.4% more than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 455 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 200 thousand barrels per day.

Inventories: Key stat is that the Big Three inventories are below normal for this time of year.
> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 414.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 6.3 million barrels from last week and are about 1% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased last week while blending components inventories increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 6.1 million barrels last week and are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels from last week and are 9% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 5.0 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.2 million barrels a day, up by 0.1% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.6 million barrels a day, up by 1.2% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 9.1% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 8.8% compared with the same four week period last year.

[dan_s]

The global oil market is much tighter than people think it is.

> U.S. crude inventories are not only lower than the 5-year average by about 6%, but they are even lower than the bottom of the 5-year range.

> Cushing inventories decline to their lowest level since October 2014. They are way below the bottom of the 5-year range. Cushing, Oklahoma is where NYMEX futures contracts are physically settled.

> Global crude oil inventories have also declined, especially in China and India. However, looking at global commercial inventories, they are slightly below the 5-year average.

> Any improvement in the Chinese economy / demand for oil-based products should push WTI over $80/bbl in Q2.