EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Jan 16

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,115 Bcf as of Friday, January 10, 2025, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 258 Bcf from the previous week. < 4 Bcf higher than the Celsius Energy forecast.
Stocks were 111 Bcf less than last year at this time and 77 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,038 Bcf. < The next EIA storage report for the week ending January 17th (tomorrow) should wipe out the surplus to the 5-year average. By January 24th storage will be close to 100 Bcf below the 5-year average and demand for U.S. natural gas is MUCH LARGER than it was five years ago.
At 3,115 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. < If it gets close to the bottom of the 5-year average, the "Bidding War" will become intense.

CelsiusEnergy forecasts for the next 3 weekly reports:
Week ending
Jan 17 > 241 Bcf
Jan 24 > 298 Bcf < I expect it to be higher due to well freeze offs
Jan 31 > 170 Bcf < This is just the 5-year average for the last week of January.

So, according to CelsiusEnergy, gas in storage should be ~2,406 on January 31st. The 5-year average draws during February and March total ~901 Bcf, so natural gas in storage on March 31, 2025 s/b approximately 1,505 Bcf. Not including last winter's much larger than average amount in storage on March 31, 2024 the 5-year average amount in storage at the end of the winter heating season is ~1,650 Bcf. < At 1,505 Bcf, the amount of gas in storage will be ~850 Bcf lower than it was at the beginning of the last refill season. Refilling storage before the next winter begins is NOT OPTIONAL. This is why a "Bidding War" for physical supply between the utilities and the LNG exporters is becoming more likely each week of colder than normal weather.

I notice that draws in all five of the regions in the U.S. had larger draws that the 5-year average. Great New > Global Warming is over!

Keep in mind that LNG exports from the U.S. are 30-35 Bcf per week higher than they were a year ago. They will remain high all year. U.S. natural gas price will need to go over $9/MMBtu before exporting LNG to Europe and Asia will not be economic. Since Europe and Asia must have a steady supply of LNG, their gas prices would go higher in lockstep of U.S. gas prices.

Team Trump will be very good for the LNG exporters.

[dan_s]

January 2025 will set a record for the amount of natural gas pulled from U.S. storage locations; probably over 1,000 Bcf (a Trillion cubic feet).

Here is why: https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/polar-vortex-related-arctic-blast-to-send-temperatures-plunging-in-u-s/ar-AA1xgzBV

[ChuckGeb]

Re: "Team Trump will be very good for the LNG exporters."

Just take a look at the chart on LNG (Cheniere) since the election and most recently since Jan 1. I think the market got the memo.