Sweet 16 Update - Jan 20

dan_s · Post by **dan_s** » Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:23 pm

This week I will be updating all 16 of the individual company forecast models. The most significant change is for higher realized oil & gas prices in Q1 and Q2 2025.

I have decided to move Civitas Resources (CIVI) from our High Yield Income Portfolio into the Sweet 16. It will replace APA Corp. (APA), which is up 8.8% YTD, but it is not getting the love it deserves from the Wall Street Gang. APA will remain on my Watch List. I just posted my updated forecast model for APA to the EPG website.

CIVI closed at $53.51 on Friday, January 17. It is up 19.9% YTD, but it still trades at less than 2X operating cash flow per share. Civitas should generate over $1 Billion of free cash flow from operations, with production over 350,000 Boedp. My current valuation of $84/share compares to the TipRanks consensus price target of $72/share.

I will be adding Peyto Exploration (PEY.TO) to our High Yield Income Portfolio to replace CIVI.