Natural Gas Prices in 2H 2025

[dan_s]

My 2025 forecasts are based on Henry Hub natural gas prices averaging $3.75/MMBtu in Q3 and $4.25/MMBtu in Q4. I am using an average HH gas price of $4.00/MMBtu for 2026, but actual prices could be much higher in Q1 2026.

Here is what the NYMEX futures prices were for Q3 and Q4 when this was posted.
JUL25 > $3.811
AUG25 > $3.859
SEP25 > $3.827

OCT25 > $3.885
NOV25 > $4.096
DEC25 > $4.505

JAN26 > $4.755 < This will be the front month contract at the end of November, 2025

All of our Gassers can lock in ngas prices close to those above with Swaps today.

Your assignment: Take a lot at my 2026 forecasts for AR, CTRA, EQT and RRC to see how profitable these gassers can be if the price of natural gas averages $4.00. You can find the forecast models under the Sweet 16 tab.

[dan_s]

Note from HFI Research: "Over the weekend, ECMWF-EPS turned meaningfully more bullish with the models forecasting an incoming polar vortex towards the 2nd half of February."

If you have not done so, I highly recommend you watch Joe's Saturday Summary here: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/

Based on Joe's forecast, we could see another BIG DRAW from storage for the week ending February 21st.

I check the Chicago weather forecast every few days. It has just started to see the cold (single digit lows) coming the week of Feb. 15-21. If Joe's forecast is correct, hard freezes will go deep into the South that week.