At the time of this post AR was trading at $39.06, up 12.39% YTD.
I have updated my forecast/valuation model for AR. It will be posted to the EPG website this afternoon.
My valuation increases by $1 to $45.00 per share.
TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 19 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for AR. The average price target among the analysts is $44.06." < The 19 price targets range from $35 to $60. Seven of the analysts have updated their price target since AR announced Q4 results and fresh guidance for 2025. Those seven show price targets of $40 to $55, with an average price target of $46.00.
AR's Q4 results were close to my forecast and so is their guidance for 2025. My valuation increase is primarily due to slightly more liquids production and a bit more premium for the natural gas they can deliver to the Tier 1 area in South Louisiana ($0.15/mcf premium to NYMEX pricing).
The outlook for U.S. natural gas prices has significantly improved thanks to the parade of winter storms going across the upper half of the country. See my post under the View From Houston tab. It now looks like we may see $4.00/MMBtu gas prices in Q2, compared to the $3.25 I am using in my forecast models.
Antero Resources (AR) Valuation Update - Feb 13
Antero Resources (AR) Valuation Update - Feb 13
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Antero Resources (AR) Valuation Update - Feb 13
Feb 15th comments about AR's Q4 results: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/results-antero-resources-corporation-exceeded-121902333.html
Keep in mind that First Call's consensus price target is just the average of the analysts' price targets in the Reuter's data base. Some of price targets are over three months old, so they are based on much lower natural gas prices than we have today.
AR closed on February 14th at $39.84, up 13.67% YTD.
My current valuation of AR is $45.00.
TipRanks as of February 15th: "In the last 3 months, 19 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for AR. The average price target among the analysts is $44.47." Ten of the analysts have their updated AR's price target since AR's Feb. 12th Q4 earning release. They range from $38 to $55, with an average of $44.75.
Keep in mind that the next three natural gas storage reports are expected to show draws from storage that are much larger than the 5-year average.
Keep in mind that First Call's consensus price target is just the average of the analysts' price targets in the Reuter's data base. Some of price targets are over three months old, so they are based on much lower natural gas prices than we have today.
AR closed on February 14th at $39.84, up 13.67% YTD.
My current valuation of AR is $45.00.
TipRanks as of February 15th: "In the last 3 months, 19 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for AR. The average price target among the analysts is $44.47." Ten of the analysts have their updated AR's price target since AR's Feb. 12th Q4 earning release. They range from $38 to $55, with an average of $44.75.
Keep in mind that the next three natural gas storage reports are expected to show draws from storage that are much larger than the 5-year average.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group