Antero Resources (AR) Valuation Update - Feb 13
Posted: Thu Feb 13, 2025 11:24 am
At the time of this post AR was trading at $39.06, up 12.39% YTD.
I have updated my forecast/valuation model for AR. It will be posted to the EPG website this afternoon.
My valuation increases by $1 to $45.00 per share.
TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 19 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for AR. The average price target among the analysts is $44.06." < The 19 price targets range from $35 to $60. Seven of the analysts have updated their price target since AR announced Q4 results and fresh guidance for 2025. Those seven show price targets of $40 to $55, with an average price target of $46.00.
AR's Q4 results were close to my forecast and so is their guidance for 2025. My valuation increase is primarily due to slightly more liquids production and a bit more premium for the natural gas they can deliver to the Tier 1 area in South Louisiana ($0.15/mcf premium to NYMEX pricing).
The outlook for U.S. natural gas prices has significantly improved thanks to the parade of winter storms going across the upper half of the country. See my post under the View From Houston tab. It now looks like we may see $4.00/MMBtu gas prices in Q2, compared to the $3.25 I am using in my forecast models.
I have updated my forecast/valuation model for AR. It will be posted to the EPG website this afternoon.
My valuation increases by $1 to $45.00 per share.
TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 19 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for AR. The average price target among the analysts is $44.06." < The 19 price targets range from $35 to $60. Seven of the analysts have updated their price target since AR announced Q4 results and fresh guidance for 2025. Those seven show price targets of $40 to $55, with an average price target of $46.00.
AR's Q4 results were close to my forecast and so is their guidance for 2025. My valuation increase is primarily due to slightly more liquids production and a bit more premium for the natural gas they can deliver to the Tier 1 area in South Louisiana ($0.15/mcf premium to NYMEX pricing).
The outlook for U.S. natural gas prices has significantly improved thanks to the parade of winter storms going across the upper half of the country. See my post under the View From Houston tab. It now looks like we may see $4.00/MMBtu gas prices in Q2, compared to the $3.25 I am using in my forecast models.