Bullish Outlook for our Gassers

[dan_s]

These are the current strip prices for HH natural gas:

MAR25 >>>>>>>>> $3.58
APR25 to JUN25 > $3.68
JUL25 to SEP25 > $3.96
OCT25 to DEC25 > $4.26

JAN26 to MAR26 > $4.43
APR26 to JUN26 > $3.69
JUL26 to SEP26 > $3.92
OCT26 to DEC26 > $4.22

In my 2025 forecasts I have been using $3.50 in Q1, $3.25 in Q2, $3.75 in Q3 and $4.25 in Q4. Actual HH Ngas prices might be slightly lower in Q1, but for the year 2025, the gas prices in the forecast models looks a bit too conservative.

In my 2026 forecasts I am using $4.00, which is conservative.

On the Antero Resources (AR) website there are slide presentations focused on the U.S. natural gas market and the U.S. NGL market. Antero makes the case that even if we have a normal winter, the U.S. natural gas market will be under-supplied by 6.1 Bcf per day in 2026, which should lead to MUCH HIGHER natural gas prices. There is also going to be more demand for NGLs in 2026, including more access to markets outside the U.S.. Global demand for Liquified Petroleum Gases (LPG) is already very high, especially propane.

Obviously, the big draws from U.S. natural gas storage in January & February are having a significant impact on North American natural gas price. What the "uneducated investors" don't yet realize are that (a) refilling storage is not optional, and it will be a BIG addition to demand this summer, and (b) that LNG exports will continue to increase because the LNG exporters have long-term supply contracts that will push them up to maximum capacity. Europe has also had a colder than normal winter, which has drained their NGas storage.

Hang on to those gassers.
> AR, EQT and RRC are close to pure gassers, but Appalachia is close to full pipeline capacity. All three of them have outstanding marketing teams.
> CTRA, CRGY, DVN and OVV will also get big revenue boosts from rising NGas and NGL prices. Timing is good on CRGY because they are going to report big production increases in Q4 and Q1.
> Keep in mind that Permian Basin Ngas prices will remain much lower than HH prices due to limited pipeline access.

Gas prices in Western Canada are starting to rise. Spartan Delta (SDE.TO and DALXF) should get more than an $80Cdn million revenue boost from rising natural gas and NGL prices. InPlay Oil (IPO.TO and IPOOF) will also benefit from rising gas prices.