Oil & Gas prices - Feb 16

[dan_s]

Trading Economics:
Oil
WTI crude oil futures rose above $72 per barrel on Wednesday, extending gains for a third straight session, supported by short-term supply risks.
> A drone attack on a pumping station in southern Russia disrupted Kazakh crude flows to the Black Sea, potentially cutting transit volumes by 30%.
> Cold weather also threatened US oil supply, with North Dakota's output estimated to drop by up to 150 thousand bpd.
> However, further oil price gains were capped by a slight easing of geopolitical risks as the US and Russia engaged in diplomatic talks to end the Ukraine war. Top US and Russian officials met in Riyadh for negotiations, but Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy’s exclusion raised concerns about potential delays in reaching a deal.
> Meanwhile, traders are monitoring conflicting reports on whether OPEC+ will ease output cuts in April or extend them further.
> Elsewhere, President Trump stated that Chevron’s Venezuela crude exports are under review, highlighting ongoing US-Venezuela tensions.
Bottomline: Lots of "noise" continues to keep buyers on the sidelines.

Natural Gas
US natural gas futures climbed toward $4.25/MMBtu, approaching a two-year high hit on January 16, as extreme cold increased heating demand and froze oil and gas wells, cutting production.
> Output has fallen by 6.7 bcfd over the past 13 days, reaching a four-week low of 100.1 bcfd. In addition, forecasters expect colder-than-normal temperatures in the Lower 48 states through February 22, keeping demand high.
> At the same time, gas flows to LNG export plants have hit record levels, averaging 15.4 bcfd in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. Daily LNG feedgas reached an all-time high of 16.2 bcfd on Tuesday, surpassing Monday’s 16.0 bcfd record.
Bottomline: NGas in storage looks like it will be more than 300 Bcf below the 5-year average when the refill season begins in April. Plus, LNG exports will continue to increase up to the design capacity of all U.S. active LNG export facilities which is 17.8 Bcfpd.