Working gas in storage was 2,101 Bcf as of Friday, February 14, 2025, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 196 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 386 Bcf less than last year at this time and 118 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,219 Bcf.
At 2,101 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
The 196 Bcf draw is higher than the CelsiusEnergy forecasted draw of 183 Bcf, which they just updated late yesterday.
The CelsiusEnergy forecasts for the next three weeks are:
Week Ending
Feb. 21 > 270 Bcf < I think it could be higher because of well freeze offs in several areas.
Feb. 28 > 129 Bcf
Mar. 7 > 116 Bcf
Combined these next three draws are 232 Bcf higher than the five-year average. 232 + 118 = 350 Bcf below the 5-year average on March 7
If colder than normal weather in the eastern U.S. extends through March (now the forecast), it will be VERY DIFFICULT for storage to refill back to the normal level before November.
I have increased the natural gas prices being used in my forecast models for 2025 to:
$3.50 in Q1
$3.75 in Q2
$4.25 in Q3 < The 3rd quarter is when the Bidding War between the utilities and the LNG Exporters is likely to heat up.
$4.50 in Q4
The NYMEX strip prices are currently above these prices already.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Feb 20
EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Feb 20
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Feb 20
Note below is from Keith Kohl over at the Energy Investor newsletter. Keith and I agree that growing natural gas supply in the U.S. is much tougher than most people think because the areas with the natural gas in the ground (Appalachia and West Texas) don't have enough pipeline takeaway capacity. We can thank Team Biden for blocking new pipelines. Thanks to La Nina's gift of a cold winter, we have a natural gas supply shortage in the U.S. that "Drill Baby Drill" can't fix this year.
------------------------------------
Trump’s Only Solution to Low Energy Prices
Keith Kohl | Feb 20, 2025
The National Energy Dominance Council.
The name has a certain Trumpian ring to it, don’t you think? When we briefly mentioned the creation of this council via Executive Order earlier this week, its mandate was clear as day.
If there’s one thing that President Trump was shouting on the campaign trail for more than a year, it’s the promise to deliver lower energy prices.
That’s not an easy feat, mind you. But if his actions to reduce Americans’ energy costs are as aggressive as his other policies, like immigration for example, then it’ll be interesting to watch this strategy at play.
Of course, you know just as well as I do that in order to have any chance whatsoever to push our energy bills lower, then the first order of business is to focus on just one solution: Natural gas.
And you know what? He just may have a shot at delivering on this promise.
Let’s toss out the oil equation for now. There’ll be plenty of time in the months ahead to discuss how President Trump can successfully lower gas prices this summer.
The real bite in our energy prices right now is from those mammoth electricity bills.
The thing is, those bills are going to get even worse as the U.S. is enveloped in bitter cold temperatures.
How many times have we said that all it’ll take to throw the system into chaos is one abnormally cold winter? Be fair, we’ve been spoiled by unusually warm winters over the last few years.
Well, we’re going to find out real quick how bad things can get.
Also, keep in mind that this is simply winter-related demand, which isn’t taking into account the exorbitant demand growth coming down the road from things like the AI boom; the U.S. will be investing hundreds of billions of dollars building-out our country’s data center infrastructure over the next few years.
Nor does this include other situations such as our burgeoning LNG exports. We’ve spent countless hours talking about U.S. LNG flowing into Europe to replace lost Russian gas. Now that Europe is getting closer to a storage crisis, U.S. LNG will play a pivotal role in meeting those quotas.
In fact, the Secretary of Energy just announced the first LNG export approval since the Biden administration put a freeze on them last year.
But wait, there’s still hope as the Energy Dominance Council enters the fray.
Like I said before, the key to lowering prices for everyday Americans is embracing the energy sources that matter. Remember, no matter how much Trump can pump the coal industry recently, nothing he does will ever stop its death spiral; our fleet of coal plants is simply too old to recover — nor should it!
So by now the top question on your mind has to be, “How exactly will the Trump administration utilize our natural gas resources to achieve his goals?”
At first thought, the solution would appear to be an easy one — let’s just pump out more of it. Right? After all, boosting natural gas supply would put immense pressure on prices.
For the record, that’s why natural gas prices were in the basement for more than a decade between 2009 and 2020.
That’s what happens when a tight oil and gas boom sends our natural gas output soaring to new records.
Look, there’s a reason why we say that the cure for high energy prices IS high energy prices. In the oil market, for example, higher prices lead to demand destruction, which in turns leads to drillers pulling back on the throttle and ultimately lowering prices as supply/demand imbalances correct.
In other words, what President Trump needs is more gas on the market to alleviate those pesky high bills we’re all getting this winter.
Unfortunately, that’s a little harder nowadays than most people think, especially if our growth in tight oil output slows again in 2025. Lower crude oil production growth cuts off the associated gas that is extracted from those wells.
But in truth, extracting more natural gas from underground isn’t necessarily the problem. More importantly, I believe the President’s energy advisors understand this.
The real critical investments that the Trump administration will be making going forward will be in one area — infrastructure.
This is the true long-term opportunity in natural gas. The need for more pipeline capacity even has Democratic governors like Kathy Hochul from New York changing their tune and signing off on more new permits to get more natural gas to customers.
Things are only getting started, you can bet on that.
Until next time,
Keith Kohl
------------------------------------
Trump’s Only Solution to Low Energy Prices
Keith Kohl | Feb 20, 2025
The National Energy Dominance Council.
The name has a certain Trumpian ring to it, don’t you think? When we briefly mentioned the creation of this council via Executive Order earlier this week, its mandate was clear as day.
If there’s one thing that President Trump was shouting on the campaign trail for more than a year, it’s the promise to deliver lower energy prices.
That’s not an easy feat, mind you. But if his actions to reduce Americans’ energy costs are as aggressive as his other policies, like immigration for example, then it’ll be interesting to watch this strategy at play.
Of course, you know just as well as I do that in order to have any chance whatsoever to push our energy bills lower, then the first order of business is to focus on just one solution: Natural gas.
And you know what? He just may have a shot at delivering on this promise.
Let’s toss out the oil equation for now. There’ll be plenty of time in the months ahead to discuss how President Trump can successfully lower gas prices this summer.
The real bite in our energy prices right now is from those mammoth electricity bills.
The thing is, those bills are going to get even worse as the U.S. is enveloped in bitter cold temperatures.
How many times have we said that all it’ll take to throw the system into chaos is one abnormally cold winter? Be fair, we’ve been spoiled by unusually warm winters over the last few years.
Well, we’re going to find out real quick how bad things can get.
Also, keep in mind that this is simply winter-related demand, which isn’t taking into account the exorbitant demand growth coming down the road from things like the AI boom; the U.S. will be investing hundreds of billions of dollars building-out our country’s data center infrastructure over the next few years.
Nor does this include other situations such as our burgeoning LNG exports. We’ve spent countless hours talking about U.S. LNG flowing into Europe to replace lost Russian gas. Now that Europe is getting closer to a storage crisis, U.S. LNG will play a pivotal role in meeting those quotas.
In fact, the Secretary of Energy just announced the first LNG export approval since the Biden administration put a freeze on them last year.
But wait, there’s still hope as the Energy Dominance Council enters the fray.
Like I said before, the key to lowering prices for everyday Americans is embracing the energy sources that matter. Remember, no matter how much Trump can pump the coal industry recently, nothing he does will ever stop its death spiral; our fleet of coal plants is simply too old to recover — nor should it!
So by now the top question on your mind has to be, “How exactly will the Trump administration utilize our natural gas resources to achieve his goals?”
At first thought, the solution would appear to be an easy one — let’s just pump out more of it. Right? After all, boosting natural gas supply would put immense pressure on prices.
For the record, that’s why natural gas prices were in the basement for more than a decade between 2009 and 2020.
That’s what happens when a tight oil and gas boom sends our natural gas output soaring to new records.
Look, there’s a reason why we say that the cure for high energy prices IS high energy prices. In the oil market, for example, higher prices lead to demand destruction, which in turns leads to drillers pulling back on the throttle and ultimately lowering prices as supply/demand imbalances correct.
In other words, what President Trump needs is more gas on the market to alleviate those pesky high bills we’re all getting this winter.
Unfortunately, that’s a little harder nowadays than most people think, especially if our growth in tight oil output slows again in 2025. Lower crude oil production growth cuts off the associated gas that is extracted from those wells.
But in truth, extracting more natural gas from underground isn’t necessarily the problem. More importantly, I believe the President’s energy advisors understand this.
The real critical investments that the Trump administration will be making going forward will be in one area — infrastructure.
This is the true long-term opportunity in natural gas. The need for more pipeline capacity even has Democratic governors like Kathy Hochul from New York changing their tune and signing off on more new permits to get more natural gas to customers.
Things are only getting started, you can bet on that.
Until next time,
Keith Kohl
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Feb 20
On Fox Business Varney, a snow resort in Vermont said the season could go to May!