On Monday, Antero Resources (AR) posted updated slide decks to their website that show how tight the U.S. natural gas market is going to be during 2025 and 2026. Bottomline, there is no way that U.S. natural gas supply can keep up with demand with LNG exports where they are today AND the LNG exports are expected to increase. Many natural gas fired power plants are going to be built for AI data centers during 2025 and 2026.
I urge all of you to go to the Antero website (here is the link: https://www.anteroresources.com/news-events/presentations ) and take 30 minutes to go through the new slides for "Natural Gas Fundamentals" and "NGL Fundamentals".
Keep in mind:
> Oil prices are set by global supply & demand AND there is currently an incredible amount of political "noise" that is keeping buyers on the sidelines.
> The U.S. natural gas market has gone from oversupplied to undersupplied in less than three months.
> From the end of 2024 to the end of 2026 demand for U.S. natural gas is expected to increase by 11.6 Bcf, not including the weather related demand spike in Q1 2025.
> The Canadian natural gas market is still over-supplied, but higher U.S. natural gas prices will support higher gas prices in Canada. Canada will be getting their own LNG export facility late in 2025.
> The NGL market is very complicated. Propane supply/demand has tightened the market and higher natural gas prices should push U.S. NGL prices 15% to 20% higher YOY in 2025. More NGL export capacity coming by end of 2025 should push U.S. NGL prices higher in 2026.
Updated profiles for AR, EQT and RRC are now on the EPG website. I will finish review of the CTRA profile today.
U.S. Natura Gas & NGL Markets - Mar 5
U.S. Natura Gas & NGL Markets - Mar 5
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: U.S. Natura Gas & NGL Markets - Mar 5
Hi Dan,
in one of your recent post you cite lack of pipeline takeaway capacity as one of the reasons for upward pressure on NG.
How does the below article compare to your analysis, where the article talks about recent increases in capacity.
This is in your opinion still not enough?
https://c.newsnow.com/A/1266606732?-585:37846
Regards,
Klaus
in one of your recent post you cite lack of pipeline takeaway capacity as one of the reasons for upward pressure on NG.
How does the below article compare to your analysis, where the article talks about recent increases in capacity.
This is in your opinion still not enough?
https://c.newsnow.com/A/1266606732?-585:37846
Regards,
Klaus
Re: U.S. Natura Gas & NGL Markets - Mar 5
See slide 8 of the slides that I spoke from at today's luncheon.
The slide deck can be found on the EPG website by clicking on "EPG Events: Presentations and Specials".
Appalachia and the Haynesville are the only areas with significant upside.
High volume horizontal gas wells come on strong, payout quickly, and then decline rapidly. We are not drilling enough new wells to offset the decline of over 100,000 old gas wells.
Increasing LNG exports will make it difficult to refill storage.
Go to the Antero Resources (AR) website and carefully go through their recently updated slide deck on the U.S. natural gas market fundamentals.
The slide deck can be found on the EPG website by clicking on "EPG Events: Presentations and Specials".
Appalachia and the Haynesville are the only areas with significant upside.
High volume horizontal gas wells come on strong, payout quickly, and then decline rapidly. We are not drilling enough new wells to offset the decline of over 100,000 old gas wells.
Increasing LNG exports will make it difficult to refill storage.
Go to the Antero Resources (AR) website and carefully go through their recently updated slide deck on the U.S. natural gas market fundamentals.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group