Q1 2024 Oil Price - Mar 14

[dan_s]

Here is my View from Antigua this morning.

If WTI averages more than $65/bbl through the end of March, the average price will be slightly lower than what I used in my Q1 forecasts ($72.50/bbl). Higher natural gas prices in the quarter should offset the lower oil price, so Q1 results for all of the Sweet 16 should be very close to my forecasts.

Trading Economics:
WTI crude oil futures climbed above $67 per barrel on Friday, rebounding from losses in the previous session, supported by fresh US sanctions on Iranian oil and shipping. Washington targeted Iran’s Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad and Hong Kong-flagged vessels linked to a shadow fleet concealing Tehran’s crude exports. Further boost came from fading hopes for a swift resolution to the Ukraine war, which could have restored Russian energy supplies. Meanwhile, macroeconomic uncertainties kept oil under pressure, with the International Energy Agency warning of a growing supply surplus as an escalating trade war weakens demand while OPEC+ boosts production. The IEA projects global supply to exceed demand by 600,000 bpd this year, with demand expected to rise just 1.03 million bpd, 70,000 bpd below last month’s forecast. For the week, oil is on track for its longest losing streak since August 2015. < IEA always under estimates oil demand.