EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report - Mar 26

[dan_s]

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending March 21, 2025

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.8 million barrels per day during the week ending March 21, 2025, which was 87 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 87.0% of their operable capacity last week. < Needs to ramp up to 95% to meet rising transportation fuel demand.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.2 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.5 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day last week, increased by 810 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.7 million barrels per day, 11.0% less than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 589 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 120 thousand barrels per day.

Inventories:
> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 433.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels from last week and are 2% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased and blending components inventories decreased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels last week and are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels from last week and are 11% below the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.2 million barrels a day, up by 0.5% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.9 million barrels a day, down by 0.2% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 1.8% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 3.9% compared with the same four week period last year.
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Refineries are the "consumers" of crude oil. They must ramp up production of gasoline and diesel to meet the annual increase in demand that happens each year in March and continues through August. The U.S. needs Canada's heavy oil to make diesel.

[dan_s]

Trading Economics:

WTI crude oil futures rose above $69 per barrel on Wednesday ($69.95 at the time of this post), fueled by supply concerns and a sharper-than-expected drop in US crude inventories.
> On Monday, Trump signed an order allowing 25% tariffs on imports from countries purchasing Venezuelan oil, potentially disrupting flows to key refiners, especially in China, India, and Spain. The Trump administration also extended Chevron's Venezuela exit deadline to May 27, with analysts estimating its withdrawal could cut production by 200,000 bpd. < This offsets the OPEC+ increase in supply starting in April.
> Meanwhile, API data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels last week, surpassing market expectations of a 2.5 million-barrel decrease.
> However, oil’s gains were limited as the US brokered deals with Ukraine and Russia to halt sea and energy attacks, agreeing to push for some sanctions relief on Moscow—a move that could pave the way for Russian oil to reenter global markets. < Peace in Ukraine will not happen quickly and Russia adding more oil supply to the global market will take even longer.
No mention of the big decline in Iranian oil exports unless they agree to halt their nuclear program.

Propane increased 0.10 USD/GAL or 13.26% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, Propane reached an all time high of 1.67 in February of 2014. < Winter storms rolling across the upper Midwest week-after-week have wiped out propane inventories in the Central U.S.