Sweet 16 Q1 Results will be good, starting with FANG

[dan_s]

I am expecting all of the Sweet 16 companies to report Q1 2025 results that beat my forecasts because WTI oil prices and HH natural gas prices during Q1 exceeded my forecasts. FANG regularly exceeds their production guidance, which they have done once again. Don't believe all of the gloom-and-doom being pushed by the media in an attempt to lower gasoline prices and inflation, so they can get the Fed to lower interest rates.
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Diamondback Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FANG) (“Diamondback” or the “Company”) provided an operational update for the first quarter of 2025.

The Company is releasing this information to provide flexibility to opportunistically continue its stock repurchase program given the current market volatility.

FIRST QUARTER 2025 HIGHLIGHTS

Average production of 475.9 MBO/d (850.7 MBOE/d) < Oil production beat my forecast.

Average unhedged realized prices of $70.95 per barrel of oil, $23.94 per barrel of natural gas liquids and $2.11 per Mcf of natural gas < Realized liquids prices should exceed my forecast.

Average hedged realized prices of $70.06 per barrel of oil, $23.94 per barrel of natural gas liquids and $3.34 per Mcf of natural gas

Realized hedge gain of $85 million, with unrealized hedge gain of $141 million, resulting in total gain on derivatives of $226 million < All of the Sweet 16 that hedge a lot of their oil will be reporting large MTM gains on their hedges.

Cash capital expenditures of $942 million

Repurchased 3,656,044 shares of common stock in Q1 2025 for $575 million, excluding excise tax (at a weighted average price of $157.15 per share); repurchased 1,560,200 shares of common stock to date in Q2 2025 for $200 million, excluding excise tax (at a weighted average price of $128.19 per share)

Q1 2025 weighted average basic and diluted shares outstanding (in thousands) of 289,612

Giving effect to the closing of the Double Eagle acquisition and share repurchases to date in the second quarter, Diamondback currently has approximately 293 million shares outstanding

2025 OPERATING PLAN UPDATE

Given recent market volatility, Diamondback is closely monitoring the macro environment and is actively reviewing its operating plan for the remainder of 2025. Should low commodity prices persist or worsen, Diamondback has the flexibility to reduce activity to maximize free cash flow generation. Additionally, Diamondback believes it can further lower its breakeven oil price through capital and operating cost reductions.