Crescent Energy (CRGY) Update - May 15

[dan_s]

I have finished my review of the updated Crescent Energy profile. It has been posted to the EPG website under the Sweet 16 tab.

My current valuation is $19.00, which is just 3X annualized operating cash flow per share. That is a very conservative valuation multiple for a company of this size (257,948 Boepd of Q1 production). After increasing production by 34.5% year-over-year in 2024, the Company has a clear path to 25% to 30% more YOY production grow in 2025.

This year's drilling program should increase production to ~270,000 Boepd by year-end.

Dividend yield is ~5.3%. The Company should generate over $600 million of free cash flow this year, which is more than enough free cash flow to keep paying the dividends.

Production mix is 42% natural gas, 18% NGLs and 40% crude oil.
They have ~57% of their 2025 oil production hedged at good prices, so oil price risk is LOW and natural gas price appreciation potential is HIGH.