Oil Price Forecast

[dan_s]

You should all read the Barclays Oil Forecast, which can be downloaded from the home page. It is available to both members and guests.
Below are notes from a long report I got from Morgan Stanley today.
Upward revision to our medium-term supply outlook. From 2012 to 2017, we forecast 7.2 mmb/d of net global supply growth, bringing total global capacity to 101.9 mmb/d by 2017. However, we’ve seen a number of longer-dated and riskier projects pushed out in time, underscoring some of our concerns about timing. Last year, we estimated production growth of 6.5 mmb/d between 2011 and 2016.
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Non-OPEC: US shale continues to surprise, but not a panacea. We have lifted our estimates in the US on better shale performance. While US shale may be the supply response to higher oil prices during the 2000s, it is not enough to change crude’s structural story by itself. Outside of North America, supply is disappointing. We forecast lower production in Brazil and Uganda as large projects have been delayed.
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OPEC: Raising OPEC capacity, but pace of growth revised down. We have raised our Iraqi forecasts. However, delays at offshore fields in Nigeria and Angola are mitigating. Moreover, the latest round of economic sanctions in Iran has made us more bearish on supply there.