Oil & Gas Prices - Nov 3

[dan_s]

Trading Economics:
WTI crude oil futures traded around $61.25 per barrel on Monday morning, swinging between small gains and losses as traders assessed OPEC+’s decision to pause output increases next quarter amid expectations of slowing demand and looming oversupply.
> The alliance said the move reflects typical seasonal weakness, though many analysts forecast excess supply in 2026 as both OPEC and non-OPEC producers ramp up production.
> Actual output growth has lagged planned levels, with some members offsetting earlier overproduction and others struggling to boost capacity, leaving around 1.2 million barrels per day still to be restored.
> Meanwhile, tighter US sanctions have cast uncertainty over Russian exports, while the UAE and other producers sought to ease concerns of a glut.
> Markets also watched for potential disruptions after a Ukrainian drone strike in the Black Sea ignited a Russian tanker and damaged facilities in Tuapse, home to a Rosneft refinery recently sanctioned by Washington.

US natural gas futures climbed above $4.20 per MMBtu, the highest since March, supported by stronger heating demand and robust LNG exports to Europe and Asia.
> Colder weather forecasts for early winter boosted expectations for increased gas consumption, while LNG export flows averaged 16.6 billion cubic feet per day in October, setting a new record. < U.S. LNG export capacity should increase to ~21 Bcf per day by March 2026.
> European buyers continued to rely heavily on US gas as Russian supplies dwindled and inventories in key hubs fell, while Washington pushed for new energy commitments in trade talks with Asian partners.
> On the supply side, US output remained high at around 107 bcfd, keeping the market well supplied.
> Storage levels in the Lower 48 states increased by 74 billion cubic feet in the week ending October 27, exceeding forecasts for a 71 bcf build. < Draws from storage during the week ending October 31st are expected to be less than the 5-year average.