Oil Price Forecast - March 13

dan_s · Post by **dan_s** » Fri Mar 13, 2026 11:09 am

Notes below are from Josef Schachter, who I have great respect for.

We have two WTI price scenarios for the coming period. Note how overbought we are now versus when Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022.

Scenario 1: If the war were to end by the end of March
In this case, with the surrender of the despotic regime and the IRGC defeat, the price of oil may just spike to US$100/b for WTI over the next few weeks. In this case, we see the degraded IRGC finished off by the ‘Artesh’, the regular Iranian military, which sides with the people and wants an end to the despotic regime which made them second fiddle to the IRGC. They have the forces. We covered this in our ‘Eye On Energy’ last week.

Scenario 2: If the war drags on
If Iran’s IRGC keeps firing munitions at the US, Israel and their Arab neighbours and destroys energy infrastructure, then the war could drag on for months. In this case, we see WTI reaching US$150/b, a new nominal all-time high.

The S&P Energy Bullish Percent Index rocketed to a 100% reading last week. It is a warning signal of prices at extreme levels. They may go higher but you are in nosebleed territory. That is why we harvested some of our overweighted Whitecap Resources position.

After the war is over, the price of crude will retreat, and when the S&P Energy Bullish Index gets oversold, we can look for a low-risk new entry point, as we did in April 2025.

Crude oil producers are raking it in with the current high prices. However, hedging cannot go far, because longer-dated prices are not so lucrative. You can sell now for April delivery at over US$90/b, but if you go into March 2027, you can only get that contract at US$66.50/b.
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MY TAKE: Phase One of the war (daily bombings) may end by the end of March, but the chaos to follow will keep a significant geopolitical risk premium on WTI. Israel is not going to stop at the end of March. Israel wants Regime Change, which will definitely lower Iran's oil production. BTW we should all know by now that IEA's predictions of an oil GLUT was total BS. There never was an over-supplied global oil market and there definitely won't be one this year.