On Sunday my desktop crashed. Thank God I had backed up all of my files. It has been a struggle and I'm still having trouble with Excel. For those of you that have not upgraded to Windows 8, it is proof that "Old Dogs (like me) have trouble with new tricks". Today I successfully reinstalled QuickBooks Pro but when I went to restore my back-up accounting files it kept telling me they were "read only". After my initial panic I read the fine print that said I needed to restart the computer to get all the upgrades installed. All I can say is "please say a prayer for me".
The Sweet 16 is off to a great start in 2013, up over 3%. SM and SFY, which are still way below my Fair Value Estimates, are leading the pack. If the prices hold on Friday, we will be off to one of the best first weeks ever. I've been doing this for 12 years and I've noticed that if we have a good January we go on to have a good year. Obviously, a lot depends on what happens to oil & gas prices.
Gulfport Energy (GPOR) has been a superstar for us the past two years. Although it is "only" 37% below my Fair Value Estimate, I think it could be big winner for investors again this year. They will be completing 50 new high rate Utica Shale wells this year. In late 2008 the shares were trading under $3.00 and I recommended it as my Top Pick. [This is why you all need to take a hard look at the companies in our new Small-Cap Growth Portfolio. This portfolio contains several with Sweet 16 potential.]
Range Resources (RRC) is down about 10% since being added back to the S-16 and it may stay down all year. RRC is primarily a "gasser" and natural gas prices will struggle unless we get a few weeks of hard winter soon.
Whiting Petroleum (WLL) still looks very good to me even though it is down almost 18% since being added to the Sweet-16. Sometimes the "dogs" from one year can lead the pack the next. Way back in 2002 I added RRC to the Sweet 16. It did nothing for almost two years before going up over 2,000% for us.
CRZO, EXXI and UNT are all somewhat "misunderstood" by the market. If they hit the production forecasts I have in my models, they should reward patient investors. Of course, in a crazy market where FEAR is in control, stocks can remain "misunderstood" for a long time.
If you plan to attend our luncheon next Tuesday, please register ASAP. It really helps if we get an accurate headcount. Also, check under the Calendar Tab for a new event we posted today.
I will be speaking at ValueForum.com's InvestFest 2013 in Scottsdale, Arizona April 18-21. I'm working on getting a special discount for EPG members. This looks like a fun event at a very nice resort.
What a start to 2013
What a start to 2013
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group