Dan,
Thoughts on EXXI's numbers? Any news on whether they going to host a luncheon? Thanks.
EXXI
Re: EXXI
Keep in mind that EXXI is on a June 30th fiscal year-end.
Based on my forecast model for Energy XXI (which you can find under the Sweet 16 Tab), I am expecting their 2nd quarter EPS to come in about 10 cents below the current First Call estimate. That sounds bad, but I am more focused on their cash flow per share, which should meet or beat the First Call forecast and their daily production.
The most import news will be how their horizontal development wells are doing. I have very high hopes for their plan to get a lot more reserves out of the ground with the HZ wells.
I have nothing in my forecast or my estimated fair value for the deep shelf program. Any good news there will be a major positive. I do think Freeport's takeover of MMR is a major plus for EXXI.
I am expecting EXXI's quarterly production to be around 47,000 boepd with an exit rate near 50,000 boepd. Anything above that will be a big plus. Q1 production was 37,300 boepd, down as a result of hurricane Isaac related shut-ins.
If the share price dips on the EPS miss but production is close to my forecast, I would see that as a buying opportunity. EXXI sells all of their production at close to Brent for crude oil and they get a premium for their natural gas because it has a very high btu content.
I think EXXI will host a luncheon for us in April but nothing is confirmed. MIND and PDS have also indicated they will host luncheons this spring. We are now booked solid through March. Click on the Calendar Tab to see what we have on the agenda for Feb and March. I also have the Value Forum conference in Scottsdale, AZ in mid-April.
Based on my forecast model for Energy XXI (which you can find under the Sweet 16 Tab), I am expecting their 2nd quarter EPS to come in about 10 cents below the current First Call estimate. That sounds bad, but I am more focused on their cash flow per share, which should meet or beat the First Call forecast and their daily production.
The most import news will be how their horizontal development wells are doing. I have very high hopes for their plan to get a lot more reserves out of the ground with the HZ wells.
I have nothing in my forecast or my estimated fair value for the deep shelf program. Any good news there will be a major positive. I do think Freeport's takeover of MMR is a major plus for EXXI.
I am expecting EXXI's quarterly production to be around 47,000 boepd with an exit rate near 50,000 boepd. Anything above that will be a big plus. Q1 production was 37,300 boepd, down as a result of hurricane Isaac related shut-ins.
If the share price dips on the EPS miss but production is close to my forecast, I would see that as a buying opportunity. EXXI sells all of their production at close to Brent for crude oil and they get a premium for their natural gas because it has a very high btu content.
I think EXXI will host a luncheon for us in April but nothing is confirmed. MIND and PDS have also indicated they will host luncheons this spring. We are now booked solid through March. Click on the Calendar Tab to see what we have on the agenda for Feb and March. I also have the Value Forum conference in Scottsdale, AZ in mid-April.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EXXI
NEW ORLEANS, LA, January 30, 2013 – McMoRan Exploration Co. (NYSE: MMR) today updated the status
of the Davy Jones No. 1 well on South Marsh Island Block 230. As previously reported, McMoRan is
developing plans at the Davy Jones No. 1 well to pump a hydraulic fracture treatment including proppant to
facilitate hydrocarbon movement into the wellbore. Future plans will incorporate data gained to date at
Davy Jones as well as potential core and log data from the in progress well at Lineham Creek, located
onshore approximately 50 miles northwest of Davy Jones. The rig is being moved off location for several
months while a large scale hydraulic fracture treatment is designed to penetrate the Wilcox reservoirs.
As previously reported, the Davy Jones No. 1 well logged 200 net feet of pay in multiple Wilcox
sands, which were all full to base. The Davy Jones offset appraisal well (Davy Jones No. 2), which is
located two and a half miles southwest of Davy Jones No. 1, confirmed 120 net feet of pay in multiple
Wilcox sands, indicating continuity across the major structural features of the Davy Jones prospect, and
also encountered 192 net feet of potential hydrocarbons in the Tuscaloosa and Lower Cretaceous
carbonate sections.
McMoRan is the operator and holds a 63.4 percent working interest and a 50.2 percent net revenue
interest in Davy Jones. Other working interest owners in Davy Jones include: Energy XXI (NASDAQ: EXXI)
(15.8%), JX Nippon Oil Exploration (Gulf) Limited (12%) and Moncrief Offshore LLC (8.8%).
of the Davy Jones No. 1 well on South Marsh Island Block 230. As previously reported, McMoRan is
developing plans at the Davy Jones No. 1 well to pump a hydraulic fracture treatment including proppant to
facilitate hydrocarbon movement into the wellbore. Future plans will incorporate data gained to date at
Davy Jones as well as potential core and log data from the in progress well at Lineham Creek, located
onshore approximately 50 miles northwest of Davy Jones. The rig is being moved off location for several
months while a large scale hydraulic fracture treatment is designed to penetrate the Wilcox reservoirs.
As previously reported, the Davy Jones No. 1 well logged 200 net feet of pay in multiple Wilcox
sands, which were all full to base. The Davy Jones offset appraisal well (Davy Jones No. 2), which is
located two and a half miles southwest of Davy Jones No. 1, confirmed 120 net feet of pay in multiple
Wilcox sands, indicating continuity across the major structural features of the Davy Jones prospect, and
also encountered 192 net feet of potential hydrocarbons in the Tuscaloosa and Lower Cretaceous
carbonate sections.
McMoRan is the operator and holds a 63.4 percent working interest and a 50.2 percent net revenue
interest in Davy Jones. Other working interest owners in Davy Jones include: Energy XXI (NASDAQ: EXXI)
(15.8%), JX Nippon Oil Exploration (Gulf) Limited (12%) and Moncrief Offshore LLC (8.8%).
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group