Working gas in storage was 3,006 Bcf as of Friday, August 9, 2013, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 65 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 252 Bcf less than last year at this time and 43 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,963 Bcf.
This is bearish for Ngas. Will be interesting to see how the traders react to storage moving over the 5-year average.
Natural Gas Storage Report - August 15
Natural Gas Storage Report - August 15
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Storage Report - August 15
Ngas prices are primarily driven by weather forecasts. Looks like hot weather is going to hang around for awhile. This is interesting because a couple months ago I watched a report about global weather and one expert said he thought the Earth's weather patterns were being push forward by 30 days. Winter weather pushed into early May and now our summer weather may be pushed into early October. Lower than expected injections to storage in September and October would be very bullish for Ngas prices. - Dan
From CME Group
By Dominick Chirichella - Thu 15 Aug 2013 11:50:50 CT
The rally in Nat Gas futures is continuing after the weekly injection report came in below the market consensus (but exactly equal to my projection). The spot September Nat Gas futures contract is now hovering very near the upper range resistance level of $3.41/mmbtu. As I have been mentioning in the newsletter for the last several days the market seemed poised to retest the upper range resistance level and with today's lower than expected injection level the market is now very close to testing the aforementioned level.
At the moment the fundamentals are starting to cooperate with the technicals. With the latest temperature forecast continuing to show a growing warming trend across major parts of the US the upcoming weekly injection reports may start to underperform. If the market is able to push through the range resistance and settle above the $3.415/mmbtu level the next area of resistance is not until the $3.60/mmbtu level. Trading at the moment is critical as to defining where Nat Gas futures will be trading over the next week or so.
The latest NOAA six to ten day and eight to fourteen day forecasts remain mostly supportive for above normal level of weather related Nat Gas demand for power generation. The forecasted area of above normal temperatures covers the entire western region of the US and flows through the northern tier of the country and into the highly populated north east. The area of below normal temperatures has now also turned to normal temperatures. This forecast is projected to remain in play until at least August 28th. If the actual temperatures are in sync with the forecasts the call on Nat Gas for weather related demand should be above normal and likely have a negative impact on the weekly inventory injections which have been outperforming the comparable historical timeframe.
Thursday's EIA report was bullish versus the market consensus but still bearish versus the so called normal five year average and compared to last year. The report showed a net injection that was below the market consensus (65 versus 70), greater than last year and above the five year average net injection for the same period. The 65 BCF injection (above normal for this time of the year) was about 5 BCF below the market consensus calling for an injection of around 70 BCF. The build of 65 BCF was exactly equal to my model forecast (65 BCF injection) this week. The year over year inventory situation remains in a deficit position versus last year but has turned to a surplus position for the second week versus the so called normal five year average also narrowing. The current inventory surplus came in at 43 BCF versus the normal five year average or about a positive 1.5 percent.
From CME Group
By Dominick Chirichella - Thu 15 Aug 2013 11:50:50 CT
The rally in Nat Gas futures is continuing after the weekly injection report came in below the market consensus (but exactly equal to my projection). The spot September Nat Gas futures contract is now hovering very near the upper range resistance level of $3.41/mmbtu. As I have been mentioning in the newsletter for the last several days the market seemed poised to retest the upper range resistance level and with today's lower than expected injection level the market is now very close to testing the aforementioned level.
At the moment the fundamentals are starting to cooperate with the technicals. With the latest temperature forecast continuing to show a growing warming trend across major parts of the US the upcoming weekly injection reports may start to underperform. If the market is able to push through the range resistance and settle above the $3.415/mmbtu level the next area of resistance is not until the $3.60/mmbtu level. Trading at the moment is critical as to defining where Nat Gas futures will be trading over the next week or so.
The latest NOAA six to ten day and eight to fourteen day forecasts remain mostly supportive for above normal level of weather related Nat Gas demand for power generation. The forecasted area of above normal temperatures covers the entire western region of the US and flows through the northern tier of the country and into the highly populated north east. The area of below normal temperatures has now also turned to normal temperatures. This forecast is projected to remain in play until at least August 28th. If the actual temperatures are in sync with the forecasts the call on Nat Gas for weather related demand should be above normal and likely have a negative impact on the weekly inventory injections which have been outperforming the comparable historical timeframe.
Thursday's EIA report was bullish versus the market consensus but still bearish versus the so called normal five year average and compared to last year. The report showed a net injection that was below the market consensus (65 versus 70), greater than last year and above the five year average net injection for the same period. The 65 BCF injection (above normal for this time of the year) was about 5 BCF below the market consensus calling for an injection of around 70 BCF. The build of 65 BCF was exactly equal to my model forecast (65 BCF injection) this week. The year over year inventory situation remains in a deficit position versus last year but has turned to a surplus position for the second week versus the so called normal five year average also narrowing. The current inventory surplus came in at 43 BCF versus the normal five year average or about a positive 1.5 percent.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Storage Report - August 15
natty went up at the report this am and stayed up. the mkt considered the report bullish cause the build was less than expected.
Re: Natural Gas Storage Report - August 15
"The latest NOAA six to ten day and eight to fourteen day forecasts remain mostly supportive for above normal level of weather related Nat Gas demand for power generation. The forecasted area of above normal temperatures covers the entire western region of the US and flows through the northern tier of the country and into the highly populated north east. The area of below normal temperatures has now also turned to normal temperatures. This forecast is projected to remain in play until at least August 28th."
For Ngas traders it is all about the weather.
For Ngas traders it is all about the weather.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Storage Report - August 15
From Houston's PLs: "Our most recent review of oil and gas price activity. WTI is stubbornly holding onto the inventory-driven gains it made in July, staying in the $103-$108 range now sustained by macro-economics, Libyan supply disruption and the Egyptian fear premium. Of course those same factors have pushed Brent even higher, bringing the spread back up to $3.78. Meanwhile today’s better-than-expected gas storage report gave Henry Hub it’s biggest single-day boost in months."
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group