Energy XXI - Updated Forecast

[dan_s]

Energy XXI (EXXI): An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model has been posted under the Sweet 16 Tab.

Earnings per share came in below forecast for fiscal Q1, but cash flow per share was close to the mark. Obviously, CFPS is more important. LOE + production taxes + gathering/transportation are only $22/boe, so cash margins very strong for this one. EXXI is on-track to generate over $8.00 CFPS this year.

The company accelerated their stock buyback program, increasing Net Asset Value (NAV) per share. They should continue to generate free cash flow this year and continue the buyback program. NAV is now $56.59 based on 6/30/2013 3rd party's reserve report. See slide 6 of today's presentation.

The Gulf of Mexico calms down in the winter, so that is when it is easier and cheaper to get work done. Two more rigs going to work this quarter to drill low-risk horizontal development wells. Production should be up a bit to 47,000 boepd (~64% crude oil) in fiscal Q2, then increase in first half of 2014.

Note that my forecast has nothing in it for their Ultra Deep Program.

My Fair Value Estimate can be found at the bottom of the forecast.

[ghrcap]

Dan, have you noticed that once in this forum section there is no longer anything you can click that gets you back to the homepage where you can look at the watch list or the 16 members? Something has changed on the functionality.

[cviller]

Assumed I was the only one having that problem. Thanks for lessening my feelings of terminal tech clumsiness.

[setliff]

this was noted early on. its been recommended we use an extra tab for the home page. you can also put both sites in your favorites. i did both, but found the extra tasb is most convenient for switching back and forth.

it does appear to me that putting the link back onto the forum site should not be that difficult.

[dan_s]

That happened when we upgrade the Forum website about a month ago. Our website team tells me there isn't anything we can do about it. I just keep the EPG website open in one tab and the Forum open in another. You get used to it. Bigger fish to fry my friends.