Energy XXI - Updated Forecast
Posted: Wed Oct 30, 2013 10:34 am
Energy XXI (EXXI): An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model has been posted under the Sweet 16 Tab.
Earnings per share came in below forecast for fiscal Q1, but cash flow per share was close to the mark. Obviously, CFPS is more important. LOE + production taxes + gathering/transportation are only $22/boe, so cash margins very strong for this one. EXXI is on-track to generate over $8.00 CFPS this year.
The company accelerated their stock buyback program, increasing Net Asset Value (NAV) per share. They should continue to generate free cash flow this year and continue the buyback program. NAV is now $56.59 based on 6/30/2013 3rd party's reserve report. See slide 6 of today's presentation.
The Gulf of Mexico calms down in the winter, so that is when it is easier and cheaper to get work done. Two more rigs going to work this quarter to drill low-risk horizontal development wells. Production should be up a bit to 47,000 boepd (~64% crude oil) in fiscal Q2, then increase in first half of 2014.
Note that my forecast has nothing in it for their Ultra Deep Program.
My Fair Value Estimate can be found at the bottom of the forecast.
Earnings per share came in below forecast for fiscal Q1, but cash flow per share was close to the mark. Obviously, CFPS is more important. LOE + production taxes + gathering/transportation are only $22/boe, so cash margins very strong for this one. EXXI is on-track to generate over $8.00 CFPS this year.
The company accelerated their stock buyback program, increasing Net Asset Value (NAV) per share. They should continue to generate free cash flow this year and continue the buyback program. NAV is now $56.59 based on 6/30/2013 3rd party's reserve report. See slide 6 of today's presentation.
The Gulf of Mexico calms down in the winter, so that is when it is easier and cheaper to get work done. Two more rigs going to work this quarter to drill low-risk horizontal development wells. Production should be up a bit to 47,000 boepd (~64% crude oil) in fiscal Q2, then increase in first half of 2014.
Note that my forecast has nothing in it for their Ultra Deep Program.
My Fair Value Estimate can be found at the bottom of the forecast.