ATPG

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dan_s
Posts: 34962
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

ATPG

Post by dan_s »

ATPG announced at the Credit Swisse conference that the MC 941 #3 well is close to being completed and will be on-line early in October. This well should add 6,000 to 8,000 boepd (mostly oil) to ATPG's production. It should give them a boost in the 4th quarter.

The rig will move to the MC 941 #2 well where it will wait until the Federal Moritorium is lifted. ATPG has all the permits in hand to deepen that well.

Dan
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
bearcatbob

Re: ATPG

Post by bearcatbob »

"The rig will move to the MC 941 #2 well where it will wait until the Federal Moritorium is lifted. ATPG has all the permits in hand to deepen that well. "

You sure about that? I think a whole new permitting scenario is likely.
dan_s
Posts: 34962
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: ATPG

Post by dan_s »

Listened to the presentation that ATPG made last week at the Credit Swisse conference and they said they had all the permits necessary to deepen the #2 & #4 wells. I think they may need an inspection of the rig by MMS after the #3 is completed. They said they would be ready to go on #2 when the moritorium is lifted.

The presentation is still on their website. All of you that still own ATPG should listen to it.

My take is that if the #3 well produces as expected then ATPG will make it. They said production will be over 30,000 boepd by year-end and move to over 45,000 boepd by mid-2011.

I'm not recommending ATPG at this point. It still has a ton of debt.

Look for the monetization of the Titan facility to pay off some debt by year-end.

Read what I have to say about ATPG in my "Sweet 16 Detailed Update" which should be on the website tomorrow under the Sweet 16 tab. Also, see my Net Income and Cash Flow Forecast.

Dan
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
GeraldR
Posts: 29
Joined: Thu May 06, 2010 12:19 pm

Re: ATPG

Post by GeraldR »

Dan,

If they announced the expected flow rate was 6-8,000 bopd this is a reduction from the 7-10,000 bopd they have previously estimated. Why the reduced estimate? Any info? Thanks.

By the way, exceptional job you did with the TGA writeup in the latest View From Houston.
dan_s
Posts: 34962
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: ATPG

Post by dan_s »

Gerald;

The 6,000 - 8,000 is what is expected net to their working interest. The difference is the governments take.

I remain very bullish about TGA. I'm talking to them about hosting a luncheon for us in November or December.

Dan
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
bearcatbob

Re: ATPG - Production Started #3

Post by bearcatbob »

ATP Commences Production From Second Well at Telemark Hub
Ticker Symbol: U:ATPG
HOUSTON -- (Business Wire) --
ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ:ATPG) today announced first oil production at its Mississippi Canyon 941 #3 well in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. The initial rate and associated pressures exceeded original expectations and the well established a rate in excess of 7,000 Boe per day. The Mississippi Canyon 941 #3 well is located on the Mirage Field and is the second well brought on production at the Telemark Hub location utilizing the ATP Titan floating drilling and production platform. As per BOEM guidelines with initial production the MC 941#3 will be renamed the MC 941 A-1. When drilled, the A-1 well encountered four Miocene sands totaling 266 feet of pay. The A-1 well is completed at a measured depth of 16,300 feet in two of the discovered sands. Plans are to commingle production from the two completed sands.
ATP operates the deepwater Telemark Hub in approximately 4,000 feet of water with a 100% working interest and holds a 100% ownership in ATP Titan LLC which owns the ATP Titan and associated pipelines and infrastructure.
About ATP Oil & Gas Corporation
ATP Oil & Gas is focused on development and production of oil and natural gas in the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea. The company trades publicly as ATPG on the NASDAQ Global Select Market. For more information about ATP Oil & Gas Corporation, visit www.atpog.com.
setliff
Posts: 1823
Joined: Tue Apr 27, 2010 12:15 pm

Re: ATPG

Post by setliff »

Potential Marriage of GE and ATP Oil & Gas?
by: George Fisher October 11, 2010 | about: ATPG / GE 294
By this author:

Late Friday after the close, General Electric (GE) announced it has considered making an offer for oil and gas producer ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG). During the summer when ATPG stock was getting hammered due to the oil spill and the market was offering the company at fire sale prices, GE and ATPG discussed an acquisition, but could not come to terms. While usually vague when revealing potential acquisitions that did not pan out, it seems discussions did not progress due to a lack of agreement about the basic framework for due diligence.
GE has been looking for distressed energy assets that are in need of financing to realize full potential. ATPG could be described as such due to its summer stock slide from $23 to $8 and its substantial cap ex program. However, ATPG management believes its assets and opportunities are solid and its improving liquidity can fund future cap ex, thus should not be classified as “distressed”. In the short term, management may have a difficult time convincing some investors, but in the longer term, ATPG’s prospects are quite encouraging.

While some believed it to be teetering on the edge, it is intriguing is the implication that ATPG could be attractive to the capital guys at GE. It is easy to see the potential attraction – low risk drilling, technologically advanced production platforms, increasing production profile, and a rising oil market. The production mix is growing more to oil, make it somewhat insulated to the currently weak natural gas market.

ATP’s asset accumulation business model is more conservative than a typical small-cap wildcatter and would be a nice fit for a risk adverse expansion into the E&P sector. The majority of oil assets are “cast-offs” from other companies, allowing for more remedial rework of known reserves. Much like the early-day APA business model, this distinction would make ATP an interesting “hang on” acquisition.

Currently, GE and ATP have a working relationship as GE is a part owner in one of ATPG’s GOM production platforms. However, the recent revelation that GE was interested in the whole company would move their position from a silent financial partner to company operator. This would represent a seismic change for GE.

ATPG management owns a sizeable position of company stock, and virtually no deal could be done without their approval. Management has stated several times in the past their belief of the value of the company, and it is far higher than any potential buyout during last summer’s heavy share decline.

While ATPG’s acceptable buyout price would probably be multiple times GE’s potential offer, the fact the two discussed the opportunity is intriguing, and reinforces the undervalued nature of their current assets. However, don’t expect GE’s interest to be matched by other major oil company. Keep in mind ATPG’s assets were purchased as unwanted assets from these same majors. On the other hand, ATPG could be of interest to other small to mid size E&P players or to a company like GE that is seeking exposure to GOM assets.

Overall, the preliminary discussions with GE are an interesting event but have little impact on its short- and medium-term opportunities. ATPG needs to continue getting the Titan hub producing more oil and to get their next project in the North Sea to the production stage. These events will add more to shareholder value than accepting an underpriced buyout offer by GE.

Disclosure: Long ATPG and have been a shareholder since 2007
GeraldR
Posts: 29
Joined: Thu May 06, 2010 12:19 pm

Re: ATPG

Post by GeraldR »

Production in excess of 7,000 bpd is a the low end of the scale of the estimate given, however, it is from only two of four sands. Does this mean we can expect increased production? Are the other two sands going to be produced now or not until production declines from the two now producing? So is this disappointing news or is it too early to tell? The market likes it apparently! ATPG does seem to have a talent for not being clear with their press releases.
dan_s
Posts: 34962
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: ATPG

Post by dan_s »

This is very good news. I'm sure they will let the well produce for months before they attempt to open up more zones. You do not want to mess with a well producing over 7,000 bopd.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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