VNR for High Yield plus growth

[dan_s]

Vanguard Natural Resources LLC (VNR): An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model has been posted under the MLP Tab.

In December, 2013 VNR announced a major acquisition from Anadarko that now looks very good. It adds 113,400 Mcfepd of current production and a lot of low risk drilling locations. Production is 80% natural gas, 4% crude oil and 16% NGLs.

VNR pays monthly dividends of $0.2075 for an annual tax deferred yield of 8.3%. Based my forecast model, they should be able to raise monthly distributions starting in April.

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very bullish article ------

Vanguard Natural Resources: High, Safe Yield Poised For Major Growth And 120% Upside
Feb. 17, 2014 4:45 PM ET | 1 comment |

About: VNR by: Adam Galas Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)

While researching portfolios for an experiment comparing High Yield investing vs. Dividend Growth investing, (you can see my portfolios here and here) I came across what I consider to be one of the best managed exploration and production MLPs in America, Vanguard Natural Resources, (VNR). This company has a solid history of responsible growth and yields 8.5%, paid monthly, with distributions growing at a 4.53% annualized rate over the last 5 years. Not only is VNR a great high income stock, but recent activity by the company is setting it up to be a great dividend growth stock. Given that the market has been valuing VNR only as a slow growing, high yielding company, the recent shift in strategy might mean the company is greatly undervalued.

complete article here

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2026521 ... e&uprof=46

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VNR PR for 4q earnings report

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/vanguard- ... 00872.html

here's 2014 guidance------- very bullish

2014 Outlook

Summary of Estimates

The following table sets forth certain estimates being used by Vanguard to model its anticipated results of operations for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2014 and includes the impact from the recently closed acquisition of natural gas and oil properties in the Pinedale and Jonah fields of Southwestern Wyoming. These estimates do not include any additional acquisitions of oil or natural gas properties. In addition, the expectations below assume Vanguard's current capital structure and does not contemplate any future equity or high yield bond offerings. Actual results for the year ended December 31, 2013 have been provided for comparative purposes.


FY 2014E FY 2013
Net Production:
Oil (Bbls/d) 8,800 - 9,400 8,462
Natural gas (Mcf/d) 215,000 - 229,000 137,632
Natural gas liquids (Bbls/d) 7,200 - 7,650 4,047
Total (BOE/d) 51,883 - 55,217 35,448

Costs per BOE:
Lease operating expenses $6.00 - $7.00 $8.15
Production taxes (% of revenue) 10.5% - 11% 9.1%
G&A expenses (excluding non-cash compensation) $1.00 - $1.20 $1.55
Depreciation, depletion and amortization $10.00 - $11.00 $12.95

Cash Flow Calculation (in thousands):
Adjusted EBITDA (1) $415,000 309,745
Interest expense, including settlements paid on
interest rate derivatives (72,000) (65,036)
Maintenance capital expenditures (2) : (114,000) (56,661)
Distributions to preferred unitholders (5,000) (2,634)

Distributable cash flow $224,000 $185,414

Excess of net cash after distributions to unitholders $25,500 $618

Mid-point distributable cash flow per unit $2.81 $2.48
Mid-point distribution coverage ratio (3) 1.12x 1.00x
Mid-point adjusted net income per unit (1) $1.15 $0.95
Units outstanding (millions) (4) 79.7 74.9

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excellent article below---

The Q4 2013 Vanguard Natural Resources Miss Was Highly Misleading, It's Still Looking Good

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2057993 ... e&uprof=46