natural gas modeling @ seeking alpha

Post Reply
dan_s
Posts: 37389
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: natural gas modeling @ seeking alpha

Post by dan_s »

•It will take a perfect storm of conditions for the projected 900 BCF deficit to normalize before the withdrawal season, with significant upside potential if such conditions do not evolve.

If we have a hot summer in the South that ramps up Ngas demand or a hurricane in the GOM that lowers production, this is going to get very interesting.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
setliff
Posts: 1823
Joined: Tue Apr 27, 2010 12:15 pm

Re: natural gas modeling @ seeking alpha

Post by setliff »

i think the 900 number is high. last week's number to be released tomorrow is going to be ~1000 according to robry's est. with at least three more weeks to go.
dan_s
Posts: 37389
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: natural gas modeling @ seeking alpha

Post by dan_s »

I agree. I think 800 bcf is more likely. Take a look at Chicago weather today. Plus, cold air will be flowing off the frozen Great Lakes for months, which will keep the nights cold into May for all the large cities along the lakes.

My take is that if storage refills are small in April and May, then the natural gas prices MUST go higher.

Regardless, we are almost certain to begin the next heating season with less gas in storage than the 5-year average. If the forecast is for another cold winter, the price of gas will move a lot higher.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Post Reply