EIA says U.S. oil production will peak in five years

[dan_s]

Total U.S. oil output will peak at 9.61 million barrels a day in 2019, based on an Energy Information Administration reference case. The agency sees tight-oil or shale volumes topping out at 4.8 million barrels in 2021.

The highest estimate that I've seen is U.S. production reaching 10.5 million BOPD. - Dan

Trading companies are buying or building U.S. infrastructure even as forecasts show production in shale plays from North Dakota’s Bakken to Texas’s Eagle Ford will peak around 2020. Those investing with the expectation that the boom will last for decades are “way out of line,” Arthur Berman, a petroleum geologist and energy consultant in Houston, said April 11 by telephone.

“Everything I see in the Bakken or the Eagle Ford generally says we’ve got years of production, not decades, and that’s an outcome way outside of the public’s perception,” Berman said. “I can’t speak for the people making these investments, but if their assumption is that this thing will just keep on going, I don’t see that.”

FACT: Every oilfield that has ever been discovered reaches a peak and then goes on steady decline, no matter how much capital is thrown at it.