WLL
WLL
Stifel issued a report on Whiting Petroleum (WLL) this morning with a price target of $105/share. The report contained a lot of details about the combined production of WLL+KOG. I am going over my forecast model and will post an update under the Sweet 16 tab shortly.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: WLL
Whiting Petroleum (WLL): An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model has been posted under the Sweet 16 Tab.
My Fair Value Estimate (post merger) has been increased by $4.30 to $126.00/share.
I now feel a lot more confident in the post-merger production volumes.
Q4 Production for WLL + KOG should be close to:
> 137,600 Bbls of crude oil per day
> 132,000 Mcf of natural gas per day
> 12,400 Bbls of NGL's per day
They should get over $6.25/mcf for their natural gas in Q4 because it has a high btu content and they leave a lot of NGL's in the raw gas. WLL's realized natural gas price in the 2nd quarter was $6.95/mcf.
Also, there is a lot of propane in the NGL's, so they should get a very good price for it in Q4 and Q1. Lots of demand for propane during the winter in ND. In Q1 WLL's realized price for NGL's was $52.95/bbl.
You can find the production volumes and commodity prices I am assuming for 2015 at the bottom of the forecast model.
All of the forecast models are in EXCEL. All of the models are macro driven. So, if you download them into Excel you can change the production volumes and commodity prices at the bottom to see how it impacts EPS and cash flow per share. Most of the P&L line items are tied to production volumes and prices.
My Fair Value Estimate (post merger) has been increased by $4.30 to $126.00/share.
I now feel a lot more confident in the post-merger production volumes.
Q4 Production for WLL + KOG should be close to:
> 137,600 Bbls of crude oil per day
> 132,000 Mcf of natural gas per day
> 12,400 Bbls of NGL's per day
They should get over $6.25/mcf for their natural gas in Q4 because it has a high btu content and they leave a lot of NGL's in the raw gas. WLL's realized natural gas price in the 2nd quarter was $6.95/mcf.
Also, there is a lot of propane in the NGL's, so they should get a very good price for it in Q4 and Q1. Lots of demand for propane during the winter in ND. In Q1 WLL's realized price for NGL's was $52.95/bbl.
You can find the production volumes and commodity prices I am assuming for 2015 at the bottom of the forecast model.
All of the forecast models are in EXCEL. All of the models are macro driven. So, if you download them into Excel you can change the production volumes and commodity prices at the bottom to see how it impacts EPS and cash flow per share. Most of the P&L line items are tied to production volumes and prices.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group