EIA Updates U.S. oil production and consumption

[dan_s]

The EIA estimates that 2014 U.S. domestic petroleum and other liquids consumption will fall marginally by 0.2% to 18.92 MMBbl/d—compared to the August projection. This is mainly due to lower propane consumption.
> The fall in total consumption will be partially offset by ~4.2% higher distillate fuel consumption.
> Domestic U.S. liquids fuel consumption was at 18.96 MMBbl/d in 2013—0.2% higher than the 2014 estimate.
> In 2015, total consumption is expected to increase to 19.08 MMBbl/d—or 0.5% higher than the estimates released in August.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (or EIA) released its Short-Term Energy Outlook (or STEO) for September 2014. In the report, it increased its U.S. crude oil production estimate for 2014. It increased it to 8.53 million barrels per day (or MMBbl/d)—or 0.07 MMBbl/d higher than the forecast it made in August.
> This is 26% higher than the 2013 U.S. crude oil production of 7.5 MMBbl/d.
> The EIA also increased its 2015 crude production projection to 9.53 MMBbl/d—or 0.2 MMBbl higher than the last month’s estimate.

The 2015 estimate for production would be the highest annual production level since 1970. The primary factor contributing to the EIA’s growth estimate revision was higher production expected from the Gulf of Mexico (or GOM) by 2015. Around 11 projects are expected to start in 2014. This will lead to a 33% rise in GOM production.
> Higher production led to a significant decline in U.S. crude oil imports.
> Net imports, as a percentage of U.S. domestic liquids fuel consumption, is expected to fall to 21% in 2015.
> In comparison, net import’s share in total liquids fuel consumption was 60% in 2005. It was 32% in 2013