We will be publishing an updated profile on OAS in the morning. IMO the stock is grossly oversold. They missed production guidance by a bit and announced they are pushing some completions into early 2015. That "bad news" overshadowed the VERY GOOD results they are getting in the Bakken from new completion methods.
Raymond James Notes this morning: Oasis Petroleum (OAS, $26.58/sh, Overweight) Updating EPS and Price Targets
It has been over a week since Oasis announced Q3 results and the First Call Target Price has only dropped a couple dollars to $48.85.
Read the profile on this one carefully.
Oasis Petroleum (OAS)
Oasis Petroleum (OAS)
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oasis Petroleum (OAS)
Oasis Petroleum (OAS): An updated profile and forecast model have been posted under the Sweet 16 Tab.
This stock is grossly oversold.
This stock is grossly oversold.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oasis Petroleum (OAS)
There will be cost to this proposed treatment, but will it retard production until treatment is up to full capacity?
North Dakota regulators today proposed standards for requiring energy companies to treat the crude they pump from the Bakken Shale to make it less volatile before shipment by pipeline or train.
"Our crude oil leaving North Dakota will behave like the gasoline you put in your car," says the head of the state's Department of Mineral Resources, which came up with the recommendations.
The new rules would require every barrel of oil produced in the state to undergo some kind of treatment, with the goal that all oil-producing Bakken Shale wells ship crude with a vapor pressure below 13.7 psi, similar to 13.5 psi for most automobile gasoline.
North Dakota regulators today proposed standards for requiring energy companies to treat the crude they pump from the Bakken Shale to make it less volatile before shipment by pipeline or train.
"Our crude oil leaving North Dakota will behave like the gasoline you put in your car," says the head of the state's Department of Mineral Resources, which came up with the recommendations.
The new rules would require every barrel of oil produced in the state to undergo some kind of treatment, with the goal that all oil-producing Bakken Shale wells ship crude with a vapor pressure below 13.7 psi, similar to 13.5 psi for most automobile gasoline.
Re: Oasis Petroleum (OAS)
Another good reason to be transporting this stuff by pipeline. Without air it cannot explode. A lot of refined products move today by pipeline.
Even in a railcar or tanker, gasoline will not explode unless there is air and a spark.
Even in a railcar or tanker, gasoline will not explode unless there is air and a spark.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
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bearcatbob
Re: Oasis Petroleum (OAS)
News: I need a translation. Is this what goosed OAS today?
http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20141212/ ... 8NZZ223I62
http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20141212/ ... 8NZZ223I62
Re: Oasis Petroleum (OAS)
Several analysts have now submitted updated forecasts to First Call since the company's press release on December 10, which outlines how they are going to adjust to the lower oil price environment in 2015. The lowest earnings forecast for 2015 is $1.20/share. [Compares to First Call's EPS forecast for 2014 of $2.46.]
I have adjusted my forecast model and posted it under the Sweet 16 Tab. If you look at my forecast model, I think you will agree it is very conservative in light of the hedges below.
My Fair Value Estimate for Oasis is now $35.45, compared to First Call's Price Target of $33.04.
For 2015, OAS has the following hedges in place:
Full Year: 10,000 BOPD at $90.15 (Swap)
Full Year: 5,000 BOPD at $86.00 (Floor on 2 way collar)
Q1 & Q2: 9,000 BOPD at $91.26 (Swap)
Q1 & Q2: 8,000 BOPD at $90.00 (Puts)
Summary:
32,000 BOPD (~75% of forecast production) hedged in first half of 2015 at approximately $89.75/bbl
15,000 BOPD (~35% of forecast production) hedged in second half of 2015 at approximately $89.00/bbl
I have adjusted my forecast model and posted it under the Sweet 16 Tab. If you look at my forecast model, I think you will agree it is very conservative in light of the hedges below.
My Fair Value Estimate for Oasis is now $35.45, compared to First Call's Price Target of $33.04.
For 2015, OAS has the following hedges in place:
Full Year: 10,000 BOPD at $90.15 (Swap)
Full Year: 5,000 BOPD at $86.00 (Floor on 2 way collar)
Q1 & Q2: 9,000 BOPD at $91.26 (Swap)
Q1 & Q2: 8,000 BOPD at $90.00 (Puts)
Summary:
32,000 BOPD (~75% of forecast production) hedged in first half of 2015 at approximately $89.75/bbl
15,000 BOPD (~35% of forecast production) hedged in second half of 2015 at approximately $89.00/bbl
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oasis Petroleum (OAS)
Even as Oasis (OAS) gets ready to slash its rig count to deal with low prices, COO Taylor Reid touts the Houston oil company's ability to deal. At $60 crude, he says at a New Orleans industry conference that OAS has wells capable of generating at least 17% returns. To be prudent, the company is still planning to drop its rig count to 6 by the end of March from the current 15. OAS also has more than half its 2015 oil volumes hedged at a floor of $89.13. OAS is little changed today after slumping 22% the prior 3 days and 39% this month. (erin.ailworth@wsj.com; @ailworth)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 11, 2014 14:58 ET (19:58 GMT)
NOTE: Oasis said they can drop their drilling program to three rigs if necessary and still keep production flat.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 11, 2014 14:58 ET (19:58 GMT)
NOTE: Oasis said they can drop their drilling program to three rigs if necessary and still keep production flat.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group