Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO)

[dan_s]

I have just posted an undated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model for CRZO to the website home page. It has been updated based on the company's guidance for 2015. 4th quarter "Adjusted Earnings" per share should be very close to what First Call is expecting ($0.51/share).

The company is going to report a big mark-to-mark gain on their hedges and they may be required to book some non-cash impairment because of low oil & gas prices at year-end. For those of you that are not CPA's, "impairment" is like accelerated depreciation. These non-cash items are not included in "Adjusted Earnings" and they are ignored by most analysts.

CRZO is in fairly good shape. They have about 60% of their 2015 oil production hedged at $92.14/bbl. Even at today's low oil prices they should generate enough cash flow to cover most if not all of the revised capital budget for 2015. If oil prices do improve, they can ramp up their drilling program.

Based on my forecast: For 2015, EPS should be approximately $1.56 and Cash Flow Per Share should be approximately $9.80/share. First Call's current CFPS forecast for 2015 is $11.44, but I am expecting that to come down after more analysts update their forecasts.

My Fair Value Estimate for CRZO is now $53.80/share, compared to First Call's Price Target of $52.24.

CRZO has a lot of running room in both the Eagle Ford and the Permian Basin.