BIG Winter Storm coming to NE

[dan_s]

The biggest snowstorm of the winter season thus far is increasingly likely to hammer parts of the East late this week into the weekend with heavy snow, high winds and coastal flooding. The big five cities of the Northeast corridor – Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, and Boston – need to pay attention to the forecast this week as a high-impact storm with moderate to heavy snow and strong winds may affect one or more of those metropolitan areas from late Friday into early Sunday.

If you live in the Northeast you need to listen to Joe's 1/19 Update at: http://www.weatherbell.com/

1 to 2 feet of snow in many areas and there may be another storm like this next week.

[dan_s]

A Winter storm is increasingly likely to develop into a major snowstorm across parts of the East later this week and weekend. In addition to snow, ice and strong winds may lead to power outages and treacherous travel, while coastal flooding could impact some of the shoreline. If that wasn’t enough, some or all of the largest cities in the Northeast - Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, and Boston - could be significantly impacted by this storm with heavy snow and strong winds, bringing travel to a grinding halt, between Friday afternoon and Sunday morning.

[bearcatbob]

FWIW - on Monday temps in NE Ohio will be in the 40s. All of this years cold and storms are too late and too little. This year cold is 10F - last year cold was -10F. I would like to emphasize - TOO LATE - large storage at the end of season is locked in. I will say the golf season has now ended.

IMO the only thing that is going to help the NG market is clear numbers showing a meaningful decrease in supply. Where is this long awaited promise?

True insanity is producers continuing to flood the market with supply. Decreasing rigs. High depletion. Where is the impact of these saviors of our portfolios?

[dan_s]

U.S. natural gas production is now declining by over 400 million cubic feet per month. To see for yourself go to the website below and keep in mind that drilling outside of those seven big areas has gone to zero:
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/#tabs-summary-2

In addition to supply falling at a rate that will add to almost 5 BCF per day, exports of gas are going up by around 2 BCF per day. ONEOK a company we profiled a month ago is opening a pipeline into Mexico soon that will be taking Eagle Ford gas into Mexico and LNG exports will also ramp up.

So, this means we will have a U.S. gas market that is ~ 7 BCF tighter a year from now. FYI the total U.S. gas market is 75-80 Bcfpd.

Weather is just one factor that influences the gas market.

[bearcatbob]

"U.S. natural gas production is now declining by over 400 million cubic feet per month."

That is all of 13 MCFD. I doubt that the number is accurate to the noise level in the data. Where is the 50% decline rate in shale gas wells in the first year? 13 MCFD is one lousy well.

I am simply baffled by the lack of decline in production with the reported shale well depletion rate and the drop in drilling.

[dan_s]

400 MMcfpd per month = 4.8 Bcf per day decline in production in one year. That is a big drop my friend.

Keep in mind that the EIA Drilling Productivity Report is on tracking seven major areas. Outside of those areas (other than SCOOP and STACK) there is almost no drilling activity.

The total U.S. gas market is 27-28 TCF per year or 74 to 77 Bcf per day. A tightening of 5 Bcf per day is a really big deal.