Oil Storage Report - Jan 27

[dan_s]

EIA Petroleum Inventories --

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending January 22, 2016

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 15.6 million barrels per day during the week
ending January 22, 2016, 551,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 87.4% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production
decreased last week, averaging 9.4 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production
decreased last week, averaging about 4.5 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.6 million barrels per day last week, down by 170,000
barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports
averaged about 7.8 million barrels per day, 7.2% above the same four-week period last
year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline
blending components) last week averaged 576,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports
averaged 186,000 barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve) increased by 8.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 494.9 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at
least the last 80 years. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels
last week, and are well above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline
inventories and blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel
inventories decreased by 4.1 million barrels last week but are near the upper limit of the
average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories fell 6.2 million barrels
last week but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial
petroleum inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.5 million barrels per
day, down by 1.7% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor
gasoline product supplied averaged about 8.7 million barrels per day, down by 2.5% from
the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.4 million barrels per
day over the last four weeks, down by 14.8% from the same period last year. Jet fuel
product supplied is up 4.8% compared to the same four-week period last year.

[cmm3rd]

Dan,

How accurate are these numbers, especially the crude oil inventories? If I recall correctly, you have expressed skepticism about IEA and EIA production and consumption forecasts as being formula based. Are these inventory numbers data based and historically reliable?

Also, the TPH video done back in November used inventory data to support the "missing barrels" analysis and their conclusion that we were (then) in balance. Do you agree that these inventory numbers indicate that, at least in the US, we are not yet in balance?