SM Energy (SM)

[dan_s]

I spend more time checking the SM forecast model than any of the other Sweet 16 because my valuation is so much higher than the First Call price target.

I have updated my forecast model after going over each line item carefully and I have adjusted my valuation to $43.80/share, compared to First Call's price target of $18.86.

Several analysts have updated their forecast models submitted to First Call (Reuters) since SM published their Q4 results. Here are First Call's cash flow per share updated forecasts.
2015A = $13.48

2016E = $9.45
2017E = $9.82
2018E = $14.51
2019E = $15.82
4 yr total = $49.60 CFPS

SM has a strong balance sheet, plenty of liquidity, years of low-risk development drilling inventory and it will produce ~145,000 boe per day in 2016.
How the heck can an upstream company that Wall Street analyst believe will generate close to $50 per share of operating cash flow over the next four years have a price target of $18.86!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The stock price has been moving up because the company FINALLY followed my advice to get out on the road and tell their story.
On Wednesday, March 9th, SM will be presenting at the Raymond James 37th Annual Institutional Investors Conference. If they impress this crowd, it will draw some BIG MONEY investors.

Our updated profile will be available on the EPG website later today. READ IT CAREFULLY and listen to the webcast of the SM presentation on Wednesday.

[dan_s]

I highly recommend that you listen to the replay of SM's presentation on March 9 at the Raymond James conference. You can access it at the link below.

http://ir.sm-energy.com/phoenix.zhtml?c ... l-calendar

The webcast is audio only, so download the presentation slides from the SM website and follow along.