Natural Gas Storage - April 14

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 2,477 Bcf as of Friday, April 8, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 3 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 956 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 849 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,628 Bcf. At 2,477 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

A slow start to refill season would be nice. If my forecast of a 4-6 Bcf per day tighter U.S. natural gas market by the beginning of next winter is correct, we should begin to see evidence of it this summer. Keep in mind that the gas storage level is high, but we have much more demand for gas in the U.S. than we had 5 years ago. Therefore, the utility companies need to have more gas in storage as a buffer.

Let me be clear that I do not think natural gas prices will move above current levels until Q3.
NYMEX Strip Prices
May - Jun: $2.00
Jul - Sept: $2.20
Oct - Dec: $2.50
Jan - Mar: $2.90
The NYMEX Strip is not a forecast, it just tells us that traders are also seeing the tightening market.

See 4/14 update at http://www.weatherbell.com/
> Big snow storm hitting Colorado this weekend 6-12 inches in Denver
> Lots of rain coming to Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas over next 2-3 weeks
> STRONG La Nina now forming in the Pacific, which means colder 2016-2017 winter for North America. La Nina normally lasts for 3-4 years.