Antero Resources (AR)

[dan_s]

We will be sending out an updated profile on Antero Resources late today.

I've made some minor adjustments to my forecast model which lowers my valuation of AR by $0.75/share to $36.50. This compares to First Call's price target of $31.59.

Antero is one of three "gassers" in the Sweet 16. The other two are GPOR and RRC. AR is the safe bet because more than 100% of their forecast natural gas production is hedged at very good prices for 2016 and 2017.

Antero's first quarter production spiked to 1,758,000 boepd ( 77% natural gas, 21% NGLs and less than 2% crude oil ) from 1,497,000 boepd in Q4 of 2015. I believe their production this year is going to exceed guidance, since they have a pattern of "under-promising and over-delivering".

This company has a SUPER STRONG balance sheet and more than $2.5 Billion in liquidity.

It has 15% to 20% annual production growth locked with a large inventory of low-risk high-rate drilling locations.