Noble Energy Q2 Results

[dan_s]

Noble Energy Announces Strong Second Quarter Results, Raises Full-Year 2016 Volumes to Average 415 MBoe/d, While Maintaining Full-Year Capital Under $1.5 Billion

•Achieved record quarterly sales volumes of 427 MBoe/d, an increase of 43 percent over the second quarter of 2015, or an 18 percent increase pro-forma. Also set records for quarterly volumes in the U.S. onshore assets and for a second quarter period in Israel.

•Reported second quarter capital expenditures of $262 million, significantly below expectations and down approximately 70 percent from the second quarter of 2015 pro-forma.

•Initiated production on the Company's third operated well within the Delaware Basin, achieving an IP-30 rate of 2,541 Boe/d (523 Boe/d per thousand lateral feet). On a normalized basis, the well is outperforming a 700 MBoe type curve by more than 75 percent.

•Continued to deliver strong results from wells in the Lower Eagle Ford. Normalized for lateral length, the wells on average are significantly outperforming a 3 MMBoe type curve.

•Enhanced completions in the DJ Basin continued to outperform historical type curves.

•Realized significant progress towards sanctioning Leviathan, including the approval of the development plan, implementation of the regulatory framework and the execution of approximately 100 MMcf/d of Israel domestic gas sales agreements.

•Reduced LOE on a BOE basis to $3.07, a decrease of 30 percent from the second quarter of last year pro-forma.

•Increased liquidity at the end of the quarter to $5.3 billion, comprised of $1.3 billion of cash and a $4.0 billion undrawn credit facility.

[dan_s]

I have updated my forecast model for NBL. It will be posted to the EPG website this evening.

My valuation increases by $2.50 to $47.00/share. First Call's price target is $44.06.

2nd quarter production was above my forecast and they raised their production guidance to 415,000 boepd for 2016.
Production mix is 56% natural gas, 30% crude oil and 14% NGLs.

Well results in the Eagle Ford and Delaware Basin continue to improve. NBL's well results in the Eagle Ford are some of the best I've seen.

Cash flow from operations is more than covering capex this year. If gas prices go up as I'm forecasting that they will, then NBL has a lot of upside from where it trades today.