Crude Oil/Macro

[dan_s]

IEA Monthly Report: In its monthly report on global petroleum supply and demand, the IEA reported that September 2016 OECD inventories continue to decline, as total inventories declined 17 million barrels on a downward revision to August 2016 levels. During 3Q 2016 OECD stocks increased 16 million barrels against the average of 38 million barrels. These figures and trends suggest the global oil market is balancing. OPEC’s October 2017 production increased by about 200,000 b/d with Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Libya growth more than offsetting slight decreases from Saudi and Angola. The agencies Non-OPEC production forecast was increased slightly higher by 100,000 b/d in 2017, primarily due to increased Russian production. The agency reported that OPEC production in October 2016 was 33.8 million b/d, dominated by Saudi at 10.6 million b/d, Iraq at 4.6 million b/d and at Iran 3.7 million b/d.

The IEA reported no substantial changes to its demand outlook, which calls for an increase of 1.2 million b/d in 2016 and 2017.

IEA Oil Market Report: https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

Iran Tells OPEC It Raised Supply by Most Since Sanctions: On 11/9/2016, Bloomberg reported that Iran said it increased output by 210,000 barrels a day to 3.9 million b/d in October from the previous month, according to a report from OPEC. OPEC members are due to finalize how much each will cut when they gather on 11/30/2016.

Saudi Oil Shipments to Egypt Halted Indefinitely, Egyptian Officials say: Reuters reported on 11/7/2016 that Saudi Arabia has informed Egypt that shipments of oil products expected under a $23 billion aid deal have been halted indefinitely, suggesting a deepening rift between the Arab world's richest country and the Arab world’s most populous country. Saudi Arabia has been a major donor to Egypt since President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi seized power in mid-2013 but Riyadh has become frustrated with Sisi's lack of economic reforms and his reluctance to be drawn into the conflict in Yemen.