TransGlobe's 2010 Results & 2011 Guidance

[ghrcap]

I don't find any data for TGA on the site to compare to the actual results for 2010, though as I recall, your production anticipation average for the year was hit nearly on the nose with the 9,960 Bopd reported after the close. Well done, Dan. Their financials may be a little light based on my $1.15 recall of your CFPS estimate.

I sure like their production growth guidance for 2011, but they don't run as cost effectively as they used to and cannot produce the cashflow we once hoped they could and would.

[dan_s]

I promise to update my forecast model for TGA this weekend and post it under the Watch List tab.

4th quarter production almost right on my forecast. Guidance for 2011 is above my last forecast update.

4th quarter earnings and cash flows slightly below my forecast.

TGA's fundamentals are rock solid. It is just the unrest in Egypt that makes me believe the market will discount the share price.

[dan_s]

I have updated my forecast model for TGA and sent it to Kim for posting. It should be under the Watch List tab on March 14.
> TGA's fundamemtals are rock solid
> Unrest in Egypt and Yemen is causing some delays in drilling but they aren't shut down.
> Production forecast for 2011 looks very good
> TGA sells all of its oil on contracts tied to Brent

My forecast includes a Fair Value estimate in the lower right hand corner.

[ghrcap]

As a long time long, I enjoyed your update and your slight increases to the CFPS column. It's an obvious dip buy candidate or a short of the $12.50 Puts.