RJ commentary, stick their forecasted prices in Dan's models and the fair price in many cases takes a good jump upward:
. . . So far, oil prices have tracked well below our initial expectations and, like last year, have been very lumpy. Specifically, WTI averaged ~$52 in 1Q17 (versus our forecast of $60) and we have entered early 2Q17 in the low $50's rather than our original call for a $70/bbl 2Q17 average. With the slow start to the year, it is now clear that our full 2017 average prices need to come down. Accordingly, we are lowering our 2017 WTI average forecast from $70 to $60/bbl. Does this mean that have we have lost conviction in our bullish stance on improving 2017 oil prices? We reply with an emphatic - NO! In fact, recent data and inventory trends leave us with even more conviction that oil prices will move meaningfully (20% to 40%) higher than current prices by the end of the year . . .