Oil Prices - This will be a most interesting week

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dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Oil Prices - This will be a most interesting week

Post by dan_s »

Oil ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producing countries will meet in Vienna on May 25 to decide whether to extend their current production agreement beyond a June 30-deadline.

In November last year, OPEC and 11 other non-OPEC producers, including Russia, agreed to cut output by about 1.8 million barrels per day between January 1 and June 30.

Most market analysts expect the oil cartel to extend output cuts for a further nine months until March 2018, instead of six months as previously expected.

There is also talk that OPEC is looking at the option of deepening current production cuts, but it is not clear whether there would be support for that.
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My SWAG is that if OPEC will announces on Thursday that they will extends their production limits until 3/31/2018 and increases the cuts, we will see WTI push up to $55. Something to keep in mind is that the largest annual increase in demand for refined products is from Q2 to Q3. Last year demand increased 1.2 million barrel per day from Q2 to Q3. Why does this happen? Because 90% of humans live in the Northern Hemisphere and a lot of them drive SUVs. - Dan
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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