Search found 34962 matches

by dan_s
Fri Jun 21, 2024 1:47 pm
Forum: Picks and tips from the EP community
Topic: Viper Energy (VNOM) Valuation Update - June 21
Replies: 0
Views: 12

Viper Energy (VNOM) Valuation Update - June 21

I have adjusted my Viper forecast model for lower oil prices and higher ngas prices in my updated price deck. My current valuation of VNOM is reduced by $1 to $43. Viper is now unhedged because it just has some oil Puts with very low floors and some collars with very high ceilings. Zero cash settlem...
by dan_s
Fri Jun 21, 2024 12:40 pm
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: EIA Oil Price forecast lines up with my oil price deck
Replies: 2
Views: 70

Re: EIA Oil Price forecast lines up with my oil price deck

Note from HFI Research this afternoon: Oil Price: "We think judging by the magnitude of the move in flat prices coupled with the move we are seeing in timespreads, most of the short covering is done. In order for oil prices to rally further going forward, oil market fundamentals need to take th...
by dan_s
Fri Jun 21, 2024 11:27 am
Forum: Picks and tips from the EP community
Topic: Unit costs – Are your driving skills better than the rest?
Replies: 5
Views: 66

Re: Unit costs – Are your driving skills better than the rest?

Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) and Granite Resources (GRNT) are Non-Op companies. They don't operate any of their wells, but they are working interest owners that do have lease operating expenses, drilling costs, etc. just like the operating companies. They just have lower G&A expenses and much fe...
by dan_s
Fri Jun 21, 2024 9:49 am
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - June 21
Replies: 0
Views: 43

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - June 21

Working gas in storage was 3,045 Bcf as of Friday, June 14, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 71 Bcf from the previous week. < 17 Bcf lower than the 5-year average. Stocks were 343 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 561 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,4...
by dan_s
Fri Jun 21, 2024 8:50 am
Forum: Other topics of interest
Topic: David Hay on Commodities
Replies: 1
Views: 62

Re: David Hay on Commodities

Thanks for posting this. David Hays is a smart guy. I'm going to be on a podcast today that will focus on energy. The main points of my presentation: > More people = more demand for energy. Human population is 8.1 billion today and going over 10 billion this century. > Oil, gas, coal and biomass are...
by dan_s
Fri Jun 21, 2024 8:29 am
Forum: Picks and tips from the EP community
Topic: Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) Valuation Update - June 21
Replies: 0
Views: 31

Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) Valuation Update - June 21

I have finished reviewing the updated profile and forecast model for KRP. My current valuation is $21.50. My forecast model has been posted to the EPG website and the profile will be emailed to all EPG members this afternoon. Kimbell Royalty Partners is one of the four minerals/royalties companies i...
by dan_s
Fri Jun 21, 2024 7:41 am
Forum: Picks and tips from the EP community
Topic: Unit costs – Are your driving skills better than the rest?
Replies: 5
Views: 66

Re: Unit costs – Are your driving skills better than the rest?

Good stuff. Try doing it without DD&A. DD&A is a sunk cost that is a non-cash item going forward. "Cash flow pays the bills." I use Adjusted Operating Cash Flow to value companies. The "Adjustments" turn the GAAP version of Operating Cash Flow back into the actual cash fl...
by dan_s
Fri Jun 21, 2024 7:20 am
Forum: Other topics of interest
Topic: Ideas for how to invest in LNG shipping
Replies: 1
Views: 32

Ideas for how to invest in LNG shipping

Notes below are from Anas Alhajji Key Players in the LNG Carrier Market Investors: If you want to benefit from the LNG shipping boom, here is an introduction! (With 4 charts and a table) LNG shipping plays a key role in transporting large volumes of the super-chilled fuel from export terminals to de...
by dan_s
Thu Jun 20, 2024 4:21 pm
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: EIA Oil Price forecast lines up with my oil price deck
Replies: 2
Views: 70

Re: EIA Oil Price forecast lines up with my oil price deck

EIA's outlook for natural gas prices: > Natural gas production. We expect U.S. marketed natural gas production to fall by 1% in 2024 because of low natural gas prices. Marketed natural gas production in the Haynesville region in our forecast falls by 9% this year and production in the Appalachia reg...
by dan_s
Thu Jun 20, 2024 4:11 pm
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: EIA Oil Price forecast lines up with my oil price deck
Replies: 2
Views: 70

EIA Oil Price forecast lines up with my oil price deck

Notes below are from the EIA's June STEO report > U.S. crude oil production. U.S. crude oil production grows in our forecast by 2% from 2023 to an annual average of 13.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 and by another 4% in 2025 to 13.7 million b/d. Increasing production is led by the Permian r...