Celsius Thursday update

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Fraser921
Posts: 3240
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

Celsius Thursday update

Post by Fraser921 »

next week -85. old -82

then... -207. old -203
then.. -232. old-201
then -141

Ergo more cold
Fraser921
Posts: 3240
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

Re: Celsius Thursday update

Post by Fraser921 »

He almost nailed it again

He predicted 50 and got 50
Then he predicted 85 adjusted to -90 and got 87

His next 3 weeks are

-197 was -207.
-219 was -232
-58 was -141 > This is why ng sold off, warmer after next 2 weeks
dan_s
Posts: 37321
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Celsius Thursday update

Post by dan_s »

My next two week SWAGs are
200 Bcf draw for week ending Dec 23
150 Bcf draw for week ending Dec 30

If my guesses come true, ngas storage at year-end 2022 will be ~130 Bcf below the 5-year average.

January weather is the key + if Freeport comes back online.

An interesting point made by Raymond James in the update I sent you is that the U.S. really needs more ngas in storage as our LNG export capacity grows. By 2027 the U.S. should have LNG export capacity close to 20 Bcf per day and we will also have more pipeline access to Mexico by 2027.

If Freeport had been online during all of 2022 they would have exported over 400 Bcf more gas. Imagine what the outlook would be if we were heading into 2023 with storage more than 500 Bcf below the 5-year average.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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