next week -85. old -82
then... -207. old -203
then.. -232. old-201
then -141
Ergo more cold
Celsius Thursday update
Re: Celsius Thursday update
He almost nailed it again
He predicted 50 and got 50
Then he predicted 85 adjusted to -90 and got 87
His next 3 weeks are
-197 was -207.
-219 was -232
-58 was -141 > This is why ng sold off, warmer after next 2 weeks
He predicted 50 and got 50
Then he predicted 85 adjusted to -90 and got 87
His next 3 weeks are
-197 was -207.
-219 was -232
-58 was -141 > This is why ng sold off, warmer after next 2 weeks
Re: Celsius Thursday update
My next two week SWAGs are
200 Bcf draw for week ending Dec 23
150 Bcf draw for week ending Dec 30
If my guesses come true, ngas storage at year-end 2022 will be ~130 Bcf below the 5-year average.
January weather is the key + if Freeport comes back online.
An interesting point made by Raymond James in the update I sent you is that the U.S. really needs more ngas in storage as our LNG export capacity grows. By 2027 the U.S. should have LNG export capacity close to 20 Bcf per day and we will also have more pipeline access to Mexico by 2027.
If Freeport had been online during all of 2022 they would have exported over 400 Bcf more gas. Imagine what the outlook would be if we were heading into 2023 with storage more than 500 Bcf below the 5-year average.
200 Bcf draw for week ending Dec 23
150 Bcf draw for week ending Dec 30
If my guesses come true, ngas storage at year-end 2022 will be ~130 Bcf below the 5-year average.
January weather is the key + if Freeport comes back online.
An interesting point made by Raymond James in the update I sent you is that the U.S. really needs more ngas in storage as our LNG export capacity grows. By 2027 the U.S. should have LNG export capacity close to 20 Bcf per day and we will also have more pipeline access to Mexico by 2027.
If Freeport had been online during all of 2022 they would have exported over 400 Bcf more gas. Imagine what the outlook would be if we were heading into 2023 with storage more than 500 Bcf below the 5-year average.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group