Energy Prospectus

Cliff_N

I don't have the data, but I can see where low gas prices going into an election would benefit incumbents. The last economic calamity that I can recall in an election year was 2008, which got us Obama. I am amazed that the media has the R word back in their talking head segments. This will not help ...

Cliff_N

Chuck, your explanation is about the only thing I have heard that makes sense. Definitely the election season.

Cliff_N

Apparently, the Fed was slow to react to rate reductions. Europeans started in the Spring through June, 2024. Markets are spooked now and we are getting flogged in the oil sector. This was posted in X by Charles Gasparenio: The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter Current situation: 1. Stocks can barely ...

Cliff_N

Dan, today is the 5th, might want to update from 8th, back to the future!

Cliff_N

Agree, in Feb-2021 to Jan 2022, I pulled data from CPE and did a regression analysis of Oil Price (X) and CPE Closing Price (Y) and r^2 was 65.9%, meaning that 65.9% of the change in price was related to price of oil. Special causes have dominated since. News on the series of COVID variant scares, s...

Cliff_N

Roosevelt was the first call himself a "progressive." Teddy was frustrated that the pesky Constitution was holding him back. He wanted to "progress" beyond the Constitution. Woodrow Wilson and FDR (also progressives) followed suit in breaking the country. Especially Wilson with t...

Cliff_N

Great chart from Eric (note Yellow arrow at the bottom, we are here):

Cliff_N

aja57, thanks for the informative reply and the reminder on election season. I do expect this volatility during Options week. Agree that it is manipulation regardless of fundamentals or companies. You can see the collapse across all companies in the sector at the about the same time using graphical ...

Cliff_N

That rally lasted 24 hours. Any ideas on why the whole sector is being clobbered today? We get a breather on one day, the next any advance is taken away. Very frustrating. Most of us made good money when oil was 50-60 dollars per barrel. Now at 75+++ a daily flogging. Very strange. Little to no reco...

Cliff_N

Thanks for the post. Nuttall has gone through the hysteria and provided some good information on what most of us believe about supply and demand.

Cliff

Cliff_N

Now we have another beat down of the entire sector, the GUSH is down over 5%, we are approaching the losses experienced in early August, while the market is up. Very strange.

Cliff_N

There was a drop about 11:16 CST today, any ideas on why the drop? I am not seeing any news.

Cliff_N

Christopher Rufo has done a great job that exposes DEI, Critical Race Theory and other movements that have their roots in Marxism. He has identified four people in his book, who were defeated in the streets in 1968, but then retreated to the universities: Christopher Rufo: "I think it’s an ideo...

Cliff_N

Dan and Petroleum Economist, what are the top five take over targets in Permian basin? It would appear that PR would be on the list.

Cliff

Cliff_N

Russell 2000 is also over 3.4%, yet oil and gas stocks are barely in the Green. Seems weird. Thoughts from Dan and Petroleum Economist?

Cliff

Cliff_N

Quote on the same line of thinking. Genius was not required here: "The Secret Service did not show up to a press conference Saturday night on the assassination attempt. At the press conference, FBI Special Agent in Charge Kevin Rojek acknowledged it was “surprising” that the shooter managed to ...

Cliff_N

Good afternoon! GUSH a composite of several O&G stocks, some off Dan's lists is down over 5% and killing O&G stocks. WTI is up Dow is weak but not in the red. Reasons for why the beatdown today? Unemployment did increase a bit, signal to the market the economy is going south?

Cliff_N

According to Tucker Carlson, Obama is pitching for an open convention to unseat Biden. aja57, great point on President and VP coming from he same state. The problem Trump would have in selecting Rubio. Actually, good news. From Tucker: "From an unusually good source: Obama’s tweet supporting Jo...

Cliff_N

https://www.nysun.com/article/argentinas-milei-gains-legislative-victory-days-after-making-history-with-zero-food-inflation President Milei of Argentina is making history. His economic reform bill just passed into law, marking his first big legislative win as the self-described anarcho-capitalist at...

Cliff_N

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 460.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories in...

Cliff_N

Simply Wall Street is very positive on HMENF: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hemisphere-energy-corporations-cve-hme-145013690.html

Cliff_N

Frasier thanks for the post on Sankey Research, interesting take, especially on the event of a Trump victory and the impact on Iran with renewed sanctions and the hit of 2M barrels per day on supply.

Cliff_N

Agree Chuck, both EIA and API so surveys and then based on the survey estimate inventories. Jane and I teach statistical methods for industry and health care. This seems to turn sampling theory on its head. You would think there would be overlapping samples. Typically, there are expected differences...

Cliff_N

API reported big draws yesterday on oil and gasoline, EIA came out opposite this AM: "U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 459.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are abou...

Cliff_N

API report out this PM:

Oil Inventories DOWN -2,428,000 BARRELS

Gasoline -2.549 million

Cushing -1.937 million

Cliff_N

PR is part of big club today, the entire market is down. When you see GUSH down 6.9% and DOW knocking on the door of being 400 points down, combined with WTI falling $2.83 a barrel, we get pounded. Perfect storm. The drop is common to most (almost all) Oil and Gas companies. Note the small multiple ...

Cliff_N

https://dailycaller.com/2024/05/24/oil-lobby-carbon-tax-republicans/?pnespid=qqFpFiZFNvoawPLC_ja0FM2BpUOrSp4vL7inw_ps.h1mvXbrF.EeTpN1Li9VTfpCjfv6vrq1 Seems strange that API is supporting this nonsense. No House folks from La, OK or TX: America’s leading oil and gas trade group is working behind the ...

Cliff_N

Most people on this board are very familiar with the drain on the SPR. Graph tells the story, scale has been changed to display a more dramatic effect. Still bad. Stephen Moore @StephenMoore Joe Biden plans to release 1 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to lower gas prices. The SP...

Cliff_N

Dan, it appears the market is liking this merger. Both CRGY and SBOW are now up. What is KKR? Looked through the article and did not see it. Assuming that CRGY will replace SBOW on the Sweet 16?

Cliff_N

Our gas powered generator kicked in for about 3 hours yesterday.

Cliff_N

Dan, you have to get past the headline and the 2nd line of the first paragraph to understand what you posted: Permian Resources Corporation Announces Secondary Public Offering of Class A Common Stock "MIDLAND, Texas, May 13, 2024--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Permian Resources Corporation ("Permian Re...

Cliff_N

The only think I can see is the Consumer Sentiment Report: "Consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in six months in May as Americans turned sour on inflation, interest rates and the labor market. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index came in at 67...

Cliff_N

Truly amazed how each day seems to get more stupid than the day before! https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2024/05/09/fossil-fuel-climate-change-big-oil-and-gas-industry-dana-nessel-michigan-lawsuit-private-law-firms/73624884007/ Lansing — Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel ann...

Cliff_N

Question: I used the consensus estimate off Yahoo Finance of EPS 1.94, but then found Zacks reported a new "consensus" of a lower estimate of $1.78, hence my post: EPS Beat was $1.84 a surprise of 3.3% over the expected $1.78. Is there a reliable source that the street worships prior to ea...

Cliff_N

Appears to be a beat on EPS and Revenue. Here is what Zacks has: This oil and natural gas company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.78 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -60.4%. Revenues are expected to be $454.97 million, up 36.8% from the year-...

Cliff_N

Consensus estimate on EPS was $1.50, they posted $1.61, should be a surprise of 7%. Not sure what Zacks has as an estimate. Riley Permian Reports First Quarter 2024 Results May 8, 2024 OKLAHOMA CITY, May 8, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (NYSE American: REPX) ("Riley Permi...

Cliff_N

Agree on the winner, any insight on why the beatdown today?

Cliff_N

Dan, I would have expected a 6% increase in SP after the ER, instead PR got beat down. Came back a lot but finished in down 1.3%. Very frustrating to see this sort of manipulation. Thoughts?

Cliff_N

"Ring just needs to stay focused on generating free cash flow to pay down debt." Dan, that 422 million and 1.67 Leverage ratio is daunting. Many on the discussion boards on Yahoo Finance were disappointed in the 3M paydown on debt. Meanwhile the CEO is making 3.7 million.

Cliff_N

Thanks for an excellent analysis!

Cliff_N

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/civitas-resources-reports-first-quarter-201500977.html First Quarter 2024 Financial and Operating Results Crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids ("NGL") sales for the first quarter of 2024 were $1.3 billion, up 18% from the fourth quarter of 2023. Th...

Cliff_N

Thanks Dan for the insight of impact from imports. Clarifies the supply delusion.

Cliff_N

WTI and Brent were both impacted by the builds on API/EIA numbers. However, the uncertainty in the market relative to the Fed announcement today added some additional hot sauce. I look for a pull back above 80. Lower is better relative to getting a rate cut out of the FED for July and/or September.

Cliff_N

It will be interesting to see how this ages after of release of earning after the bell today: HOUSTON, April 29, 2024--(BUSINESS WIRE)--SilverBow Resources, Inc. (NYSE: SBOW) ("SilverBow" or the "Company") today released an investor presentation and mailed a letter to shareholder...

Cliff_N

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 460.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories in...

Cliff_N

Interesting day. NG is down to $1.59, AR, CRK and EQT are all up! Amazing.

Cliff_N

Update, received ballots today and voted. Board recommended a "For" vote.

Cliff_N

PetroGirl
@PetroGirl1
#API Oil inventory Draws Down -3,230,000
Barrels Oil Going To $100

Oil -3,230,000 Barrels
Gas. -595,000. Barrels
Cushing -898,000 Barrels
distillates +724,000

Cliff_N

From Phil Flynn: “if you believe the Chinese government, the country doesn’t import any oil from Iran. Zero. Not a barrel. Instead, it imports lots of Malaysian crude. So much that, according to official Chinese customs data, it somehow buys more than twice as much Malaysian oil as Malaysia actually...

Cliff_N

On the link to Twitter a bit of background is given:
PetroGirl
@PetroGirl1

Johanna Educated Woman Brilliant Investor of Oil

U of Toronto Business Admin Grad Surge $SGY Tamarack $TVE Cash Flow

Multiple Expansions 🛢 #COM

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